基于多主体混合互补模型的天然气市场化改革模拟与评估  

Assessment of natural gas market liberalisation reform using multi-agent mixed complementary model

作　　者：龚承柱[1] 龚年姣 吴德胜 於世为[1] GONG Chengzhu;GONG Nianjiao;WU Desheng;YU Shiwei(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;School of Urban and Regional Science,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉430074 [2]上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200433 [3]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2022年第2期499-513,共15页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71804167);教育部人文社科基金(17YJC630028)。

摘　　要：随着油气行业市场化改革走向纵深,天然气产业迎来新的机遇与挑战.为探究中国天然气市场化改革的潜在影响,本文采用多主体建模方法,融合混合互补模型,构建包含供气商、管输商、储气商和消费者在内的天然气市场多主体混合互补系统,并以区域性的天然气市场湖北省为例,模拟和评估其在放松价格管制、管网第三方准入、储气设施完善等不同情景下的天然气市场化改革效果.结果显示:在完全取消价格管制后,天然气终端消费市场价格上涨,需求减少.随着管网第三方准入的实施,管道利用率提高,输配成本降低,终端市场消费价格涨幅放缓,上下游价格差距缩小;同时,随着储气设施投入运营,用气旺季的需求缺口可以得到补充,需求淡旺季价格差有效降低.根据社会总福利的变化,可以发现,目前推进的天然气市场化改革措施具有积极效果,特别是国家管网公司的成立和大规模储气设施的投资建设,将可以提高天然气输配效率,平抑价格波动,但在价格规制层面,还需逐步放开,否则短期面临气价上涨压力,不利激发天然气需求增长.With the deepening reform of oil and gas market,the natural gas industry ushered in new opportunities and challenges.To explore the potential impact of China ’s natural gas market liberalisation reform,this paper adopts the bottom-up approach to develop a multi-agent mixed complementary model of China ’s natural gas market from the perspective of industrial chain including gas suppliers,pipeline operators,storage operators and end-consumers.In accordance with existing gas market,a regional gas market in Hubei province is taken as an example to assess the effects of gas market liberalisation reform with several counterfactual scenarios,such as fully price deregulation,third party access to pipelines,and the improvement of gas storage facilities.The simulation results indicate that after the fully deregulation of gas price,the gas demand will decrease with the price rising in end-consumers.With enabling the third-party access to pipeline,the rising retail price will be reduced,and the price gap between upstream and downstream will be narrowed due to the improving of pipeline utilization rate.Moreover,with the new gas storage facilities come into service,the price gap between peak and off-peak demand season is effectively reduced,which has a significant impact on peak demand shifting.Overall,the total social welfare changes have illustrated the gas market liberalisation has positive outcomes.In particular,the establishment of national pipeline network corporation and the large-scale construction of gas storage facilities will effectively improve the efficiency of gas transmission and distribution,and help dampen gas price fluctuation.However,the price deregulation is still need to be liberalised gradually,otherwise,it is difficult to stimulate the growth of natural gas demand due to the rising gas price in short-term.

关 键 词：天然气产业 市场化改革 多主体系统 混合互补模型 

分 类 号：TE-9[石油与天然气工程] N945[自然科学总论—系统科学]