基于低碳转型目标的可再生能源发电资金需求分析  

Analysis of the Capital Demand on Renewable Energy Power Generation Based on the Goal of Low Carbon Transformation

作　　者：张倩倩 ZHANG Qianqian(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049

出　　处：《科技和产业》2022年第3期55-62,共8页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：明确未来不同气候目标下可再生能源发电的资金需求,是后续合理安排资金规划、调整中国电力结构以更好地达成2060碳中和目标的基础。鉴于此,从现有主流机构发表的文献中确定不同气候目标下可再生能源发电的发展路径即未来装机容量,并采用学习曲线预测单位投资成本,进而核算未来资金需求。结果表明,不同情景下可再生能源资金需求不同,不确定性较大,且存在一定的资金缺口。Clarifying the capital demand of renewable energy power generation under different climate goals in the future is the basis for the following reasonable arrangement of capital planning and adjustment of China's power structure to achieve 2060 carbon neutrality.Given this,the development path of renewable energy power generation under different climate targets is determined from literature published by the existing mainstream institutions,and the corresponding installed capacity in the future is obtained.The unit investment cost is predicted by using the learning curve to calculate the future capital demand and analyze the capital gap.The results show that under different scenarios,the demand for renewable energy funds is different,the uncertainty is significant,and there is a particular funding gap.

关 键 词：低碳转型 可再生能源 资金需求 学习曲线 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]