新一代静止气象卫星葵花8号的晴空红外辐射率资料同化对台风“天鸽”的预报影响研究  

The impact of assimilation of Himawari-8 clear-sky data from the new generation geostationary meteorological satellite on the forecast of super Typhoon Hato

作　　者：许冬梅[1,3,4] 沈菲菲 李泓[2] 刘瑞霞 王易[6] 束艾青[1] Xu Dongmei;Shen Feifei;Li Hong;Liu Ruixia;Wang Yi;Shu Aiqing(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,China;The Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110166,China;Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610225,China;Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellite,China Meteorological Administration,National Satellite Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory,Nanjing 210008,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [3]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110166 [4]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225 [5]国家卫星气象中心中国气象局中国遥感卫星辐射测量和定标重点开放实验室,北京100081 [6]江苏省气象台,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《海洋学报》2022年第3期40-52,共13页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(42192553);上海市优秀学术/技术带头人计划(21XD1404500);上海台风基金(TFJJ202107);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室开放研究基金(SZKT201904);中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所和东北冷涡研究重点开放实验室联合开放基金(2020SYIAE02);江苏省气象局科研重点项目(KZ202001);江苏省北极阁基金(BJG201907);江苏省333工程(BRA2020427)。

摘　　要：本文以2017年第13号台风“天鸽”(Hato)为例,在WRFDA同化系统中结合日本葵花8号(Himawari-8)资料,通过同化Himawari-8晴空红外辐射率资料并进一步考察其对台风“天鸽”的结构、强度、路径分析和预报的影响。研究结果表明:同化Himawari-8晴空红外辐射率资料对台风背景场的水汽相关变量分析有显著改进,对背景场中的台风水汽信息有一定的改进作用。与控制实验,即没有同化Himawari-8晴空红外辐射率资料的实验相比,加入同化实验对台风“天鸽”的风场、500 hPa气压场的分析效果有所提高,台风气旋性环流加强,并进一步改进了对台风“天鸽”的路径、台风中心最低气压和近中心最大风速的预报。平均路径误差和降水预报相对于常规观测变量的均方根误差均有所改善。Based on the Typhoon Hato in 2017,the Himawari-8 AHI infrared radiance data are assimilated under the clear-sky condition in WRFDA system to investigate its impact on the typhoon forecast.The structure,strength,as well as the track forecasts are also studied for the Typhoon Hato.The results show that the clear-sky assimilation of Himawari-8 infrared radiance data provides obvious increment of cyclonic winds in the typhoon core and an obvious increase of typhoon in background field.Compared with the control experiment without assimilating Himawari-8 AHI infrared radiance data,the experiment that assimilates Himawari-8 AHI data strengthens the wind field of Typhoon Hato,500 hPa pressure field analysis,and typhoon cyclonic circulation.In addition,the AHI radiance assimilation further improves the forecast of track,minimum sea level pressure,and the maximum wind speed of the Typhoon Hato.The average track error,the precipitation distribution,the root mean square error against the conventional data are also improved.

关 键 词：葵花8号 WRF模式 三维变分 台风“天鸽” 

分 类 号：P412.25[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P444