秋季北印度洋超级气旋风暴年代际变化的成因分析  

Analysis of Interdecadal Variation of Super Cyclonic Storms over the North Indian Ocean in Autumn

作　　者：柳龙生 许映龙 LIU Longsheng;XU Yinglong(National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2022年第2期245-253,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41930972);国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510102)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用1979—2018年美国联合台风警报中心发布的热带气旋数据和ERA-Interim提供的1°×1°再分析资料分析了北印度洋秋季超级气旋风暴的活动特征。结果表明:1998年以后,北印度洋秋季生成的超级气旋风暴数目显著增多;1999—2018年北印度洋平均最大潜在强度指数高于1979—1998年;与1979—1998年相比,1999—2018年更高的平均海面温度和海洋热含量为超级气旋风暴的生成和发展提供了有利的条件,更弱的垂直风切变、更强的水汽通量和低层气旋性涡度输送促进了热带风暴强度的持续增长。Based on the best-track data from Joint Typhoon Warning Center and ERA-interim 1°×1°reanal-ysis data in 1979-2018,this paper investigates the activity characteristics of super cyclonic storms that are formed over the North Indian Ocean in autumn.The results show that the number of super cyclonic storms in autumn over the North Indian Ocean increased significantly after 1998.The average maximum potential intensity(MPI)index of the North Indian Ocean in 1999-2018 was higher than that in 1979-1998.Compared with the conditions in 1979-1998,the higher average sea surface temperature and ocean heat content in 1999-2018 provided favorable conditions for the formation and development of super cyclonic storms.Moreover,weaker vertical wind shear,stronger water vapor flux and lower level cyclonic vorticity transport promoted the sustained growth of cyclonic storm intensity.

关 键 词：北印度洋 秋季超级气旋风暴 年代际变化 海面温度 垂直风切变 

分 类 号：P447[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467