基于正态变换的玛纳斯河水文频率研究  

Study on Hydrological Frequency with Manas River Based on Normal Transform

作　　者：蔡国涛 乔长录[1,2] CAI Guotao;QIAO Changlu(School of Water Conservancy&Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China;Key Water Saving Irrigation Laboratory of Xinjiang Production&Construction Group,Shihezi,832000,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832000 [2]现代节水灌溉兵团重点实验室,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2022年第3期21-25,31,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51769030);兵团应用基础研究计划项目(2016AG014)。

摘　　要：以Box-Cox和Johnson变换为研究工具,对比分析其正态转换效果,然后通过各自逆变换将工程规划、设计等所需频率下正态分布的年径流量设计值(正态分位数)转换为原始偏态分布对应频率的年径流量设计值,最终得出两种变换年径流量理论频率和经验频率的拟合结果。基于新疆玛纳斯河56 a径流资料,以P-Ⅲ型分布作为频率计算曲线。研究发现,对比实测序列适线结果,将Box-Cox变换和Johnson变换应用于水文频率计算中,得到了较好的数据拟合效果,表明这2种变换方法在干旱区适应性良好。Using Box⁃Cox and Johnson transformation as research tools,the normal conversion effect was compared and analyzed,and then the annual runoff design value(normal quantile)of normal distribution under the required frequency of engineering planning and design was transformed into the annual runoff design value of the corresponding frequency of the original skewness distribution and finally the goodness of fit between the theoretical frequency and empirical frequency of the two variable runoff frequencies was obtained.Based on the 56 years runoff data of Manas River in Xinjiang,the P-Ⅲdistribution was used as the frequency calculation of curve⁃fitting method.It is found that com⁃pared with the results of the original measured sequence,the Box⁃Cox and Johnson transform is applied to the hydrological frequency calcula⁃tion and a good data fitting effect is obtained,which shows that the model has good adaptability in the arid area.

关 键 词：正态变换 水文频率计算 适线法 非一致性修正 玛纳斯河 

分 类 号：P333.9[天文地球—水文科学]