将地貌学应用于黄河下游河道治理长远决策的建议  

Suggestions on the Application of Geomorphology on Long⁃Term Decision⁃Making of Channel Regulation of the Lower Yellow River

作　　者：陈蕴真 李军华[1] 江恩慧[1] CHEN Yunzhen;LI Junhua;JIANG Enhui(Key Laboratory of Yellow River Sediment Research of MWR,Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利科学研究院水利部黄河泥沙重点实验室,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《人民黄河》2022年第3期32-39,共8页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407403);国家自然科学基金重点项目(51539004)。

摘　　要：习近平总书记关于“保护黄河是事关中华民族伟大复兴的千秋大计”的论断,为黄河下游河道治理提出了崭新的课题——谋划千年治理蓝图。河流地貌学探究河流在天然和受人类干预情形下的演化规律,研究的时间尺度可达数千年,可为治河的长期决策提供支撑。通过简述河流地貌学的发展史、研究内容、学科特色及其关注的治河问题,以河道系统演化的复杂性理论为指导,基于“综合微观分析法”这一方法论,提出适用于黄河下游河道治理的应用地貌学工作流程。作为工作流程的操作示范,基于6000 a黄河泛滥史的地貌学研究,阐释黄河下游改道的风险来源,分析现有黄河下游河道治理方略的更多内涵,评估未来300 a的改道风险,提出“五步走”的千年治理设想;最后列出了必须深入研究的科学问题。President Xi Jinping’s statement that“protecting the Yellow River is a strategy that will last for a millennium for the great rejuve⁃nation of the Chinese nation”has raised a new topic for the regulation of theLower Yellow River,that is,drawing up a millennium blueprint for channel regulation.Fluvial geomorphology investigates the evolution of rivers under natural and human intervention conditions on a time scale of thousands of years,which supports long⁃term decision making on river management.Firstly,this paper introduced the history of fluvi⁃al geomorphology,its research contents,subject characteristics and issues of interest when applied to the practice of river management.Then,guided by the complexity theory of alluvial channel evolution and based on the methodology of“synthetic microanalysis”,the workflow of applied geomorphology that works for channel regulation of the Lower Yellow River was proposed.A demonstration of running the workflow was based on the geomorphologic researches on the Yellow River flood history over the past six millennia.By identifying the risk sources of course shift of the Lower Yellow River,reexamining the connotation of the existing channel regulation strategy,and evaluating the risk of course shift in the next three hundred years,a five⁃step blueprint for channel regulation in this millennium was proposed.Finally,the scien⁃tific issues that should be answered were listed.

关 键 词：河道治理 千年蓝图 河流地貌学 复杂响应 改道 黄河下游 

分 类 号：TV85[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV882.1