对当前黄河下游河道演变发展的认识  

Understanding of the Evolution and Development of the Lower Yellow River

作　　者：王恺忱[1] WANG Kaichen(Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《人民黄河》2022年第3期40-43,47,共5页Yellow River

摘　　要：小浪底水库建成拦沙后,黄河下游河道持续冲刷,出现前所未有的大好形势,但是这种状况能否稳定保持,存在不同认识,需深入探讨。实践表明,黄河下游始终处于不断的演变发展过程中,并受来水来沙、河床边界和河口基准面三大要素的制约,三者缺一不可。所有的冲淤均有前因后果和独特的时间、条件、地点的烙印,不可重现和复制。形成此大好形势的三大有利条件,即尾闾改汊导致河口基准面降低、小浪底水库拦沙下泄清水冲刷和黄河流域处于枯水枯沙期,当前均基本达到由好变坏的转折点,黄河下游河道已开始进入全面迅速回淤升高阶段,必将恢复到甚至超过1996年水平。居安思危,加强基础理论研究,及时科学预测黄河下游河道演变趋势,实为当务之急。After the completion of Xiaolangdi Reservoir on the Yellow River,the lower reaches of the Yellow River have been continuously scoured,which is an unprecedented good situation.However,there are different understandings on whether this situation can be maintained stably,which needs to be further discussed.The practice shows that the lower Yellow River is always in the process of continuous evolution and development and is restricted by three factors of incoming water and sediment,river bed boundary and estuarine base level.All the scour and siltation have the cause and effect and the brand of unique time,condition and place,which cannot be reproduced and duplicated.The three favorable conditions for the formation of such a good situation are as follows:the lower base level of the estuary caused by the diversion of the tail stream,the scouring of the clear water discharged from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir and the low water and sediment period of the Yellow River Basin.At present,the situation has basically reached the turning point from good to bad.The channel of the Lower Yellow River has entered a stage of rapid increase in siltation,which will return to or even exceed the level of 1996.It is urgent to think of danger in times of safety,strengthen basic theoretical research and timely and scientifically predict the evolution trend of the Lower Yellow River.

关 键 词：河道演变 水沙变化 河床边界 河口基准面 黄河下游 

分 类 号：TV147[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学] TV882.1