气候变化对黄海中南部斑鰶产卵场适宜性的影响  

Impacts of climate changes on the habitat suitability of spawning ground for Konosirus punctatus in the central and southern Yellow Sea

作　　者：张云雷 孙霄[1,2] 刘晓慧 崔晏华 简盈 薛莹 ZHANG Yunlei;SUN Xiao;LIU Xiaohui;CUI Yanhua;JIAN Ying;XUE Ying(Fisheries College,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China;Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem,Ministry of Education,Qingdao 266003,China;Marine Biology Institute of Shandong Province,Qingdao 266104,China;Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao),Qingdao 266237,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学水产学院,山东青岛266003 [2]海州湾渔业生态系统教育部野外科学观测研究站,山东青岛266003 [3]山东省海洋生物研究院,山东青岛266104 [4]青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室,海洋渔业科学与食物产出过程功能实验室,山东青岛266237

出　　处：《水产学报》2022年第2期215-223,共9页Journal of Fisheries of China

基　　金：山东省支持青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室重大科技专项(2018SDKJ0501-2);国家重点研发计划(2018YFD0900904);国家自然科学基金(31772852)。

摘　　要：为全面了解气候变化下黄海中南部近海海域斑鰶的产卵场适宜性变动规律,为黄海中南部产卵场的保护提供科学依据,实验根据2014—2018年5—7月黄海中南部产卵场调查数据,并结合FVCOM(Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model)模型提取的表层水温、表层盐度、水深、离岸距离、海表流速以及NOAA数据中心的叶绿素a浓度等6种环境因子,基于随机森林(Random Forest,RF)模型构建黄海中南部斑鰶产卵场适宜性的分布模型,根据未来气候变化的情景,预测该鱼种产卵场在未来的潜在分布。结果显示,不同月份中影响斑鰶鱼卵分布的主要环境因素不同,主要因子在5—7月分别为水深、叶绿素a和表层水温,其偏差贡献率分别为24.49%、28.08%、26.26%。研究表明,在未来气候变化的情景下,斑鰶的适宜产卵场将向北迁移。此外,黄海中南部北部沿岸海域及南部远岸深水区的栖息地适宜性明显增加。因此,未来在产卵场保护以及资源开发利用等方面,应当充分考虑这一变动趋势。Global warming will lead to great variations in ocean environmental variables,and the spawning grounds of fishes will be changed correspondingly.To comprehensively understand the changing patterns of spawning ground suitability of Konosirus punctatus under climate change and provide a scientific basis for the conservation of spawning grounds,fishery surveys were conducted in the spawning grounds in the central and southern Yellow Sea from May to July in 2014—2018 using ring net.Spawning grounds distribution of K.punctatus was analyzed by Random Forest model.Six environmental variables were selected in the model,including sea surface temperature,sea surface salinity,depth,offshore distance,sea surface velocity from FVCOM(Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model)and chlorophyll-a concentration from NOAA.In addition,the potential distribution of the spawning grounds of K.punctatus under future climate change scenarios was also predicted.Results showed that the main environmental factors affecting the spawning grounds were different by months,and the main factors were water depth,chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature from May to July,with relative contribution of 24.49%,28.08%and 26.26%,respectively.The suitable spawning grounds of this species will migrate northward under climate changes.Moreover,the suitability of spawning grounds in the northern coastal waters of Haizhou Bay and the deep-water areas of the southern Haizhou Bay will increase significantly.Therefore,this trend should be fully considered in the future in terms of spawning ground protection and resource development and utilization.

关 键 词：斑鰶 气候变化 产卵场 随机森林 黄海 

分 类 号：S931[农业科学—渔业资源]