基于随机森林的水库防洪调度研究  

Research on Reservoir Flood Control Operation Based on Random Forest

作　　者：刁艳芳[1] 王蒙 王昊 丛方杰 王刚[1] DIAO Yan-fang;WANG Meng;WANG Hao;CONG Fang-jie;WANG Gang(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Shandong Agricultural University,Taian 271018,Shandong Province,China;School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan Province,China;Network and Educational Technology Center,Yantai University,Yantai 264005,Shandong Province,China)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018 [2]华北水利水电大学水利学院,郑州450046 [3]烟台大学网络与教育技术中心,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2022年第3期8-12,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：山东省重点研发计划项目(2019GSF111043)。

摘　　要：水库作为重要的防洪工程措施之一,在保证国民经济持续增长、维持社会稳定及缓解水资源供需矛盾等方面发挥了重要的作用,科学合理的水库防洪调度更能有效地促进其作用的发挥。针对目前水库防洪调度中存在的对历史洪水调度数据信息利用不足的问题,提出了采用随机森林(RF)回归算法制定水库防洪调度方案的新方法。首先,对历史洪水数据进行优化调度生成洪水优化调度数据集,由RF回归算法确定影响水库泄流量的主要影响因素;然后,将训练样本洪水过程逐时段的主要影响因素和泄流量输入RF回归算法生成泄流量回归树;最后,由回归树拟定验证样本洪水过程的泄流量。山东省田庄水库的实例论证了本方法的可操作性和合理性。As one of the important flood control engineering measures,reservoirs play an important role in ensuring the sustainable growth of national economy,maintaining social stability and alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources. Meanwhile,scientific and reasonable reservoir flood control operation can effectively promote its role. In order to solve the problem of insufficient utilization of historical flood operation data,this paper proposes a new method of using random forest(RF)regression algorithm to formulate reservoir flood control operation scheme. First of all,the optimal flood operation data set is generated by optimizing the historical flood data,and the main factors affecting the reservoir discharge are determined by the RF regression algorithm. Then,the main influencing factors and discharges of the training sample flood processes are input into the RF regression algorithm to construct the discharge regression trees. Finally,the discharges of the verification sample flood processes are determined by regression trees. The example of Tianzhuang Reservoir in Shandong Province proves the operability and rationality of this method.

关 键 词：防洪调度 随机森林 回归树 泄流量 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]