基于DPSIRM模型的高原城市水源地水资源脆弱性评价及障碍诊断  

Evaluation of Water Resources Vulnerability and Obstacle Diagnosis of Water Sources in Plateau Cities Based on DPSIRM Model

作　　者：管文闯 饶碧玉[1,2] 路远 李婧瑜 樊星[3] 王静 GUAN Wen-chuang;RAO Bi-yu;LU Yuan;LI Jing-yu;FAN Xing;WANG Jing(Architectural Engineering Institute,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650051,China;Key Laboratory of Urban and Rural Water Security and Conservation and Waste Reduction and Universities,Kunming 650051,China;Yunnan Tengxu Municipal Engineering Design Co.,Ltd,Kunming 650100,China)

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学建筑工程学院,昆明650051 [2]云南省高校城乡水安全与节水减排重点实验室,昆明650051 [3]云南腾旭市政工程设计有限公司,昆明650100

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2022年第3期147-154,162,共9页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2020Y0158);云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2021J0124)。

摘　　要：综合考虑影响高原城市水源地的经济、社会、资源、环境、生态等因素,构建基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理(DPSIRM)模型的水源地脆弱性评价指标体系,采用熵值法对各指标赋权重值,运用集对分析与障碍度模型对昆明市云龙水库水源地2014-2019年水资源脆弱性进行评价研究。结果表明:2014年云龙水库水源地脆弱性呈强脆弱状态,2015-2019年均呈现中等脆弱状态,其属于中等脆弱等级的置信度值逐年上升,水资源脆弱性逐渐降低,表明已实施的水资源管理政策取得成效;从评价模型各子系统障碍诊断结果看,2014-2015年压力、状态、影响子系统障碍度占主导作用,2016-2018年影响与响应子系统占主导作用,2019年压力与影响子系统占据主导作用,并且影响子系统障碍度影响更大。建议应从系统论维度推进水资源安全的良性发展,加强水源地水资源水质管控,加大对水资源的综合开发治理。A water source vulnerability assessment index system based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response-management(DPSIRM)model is established,comprehensively considering the economy,society,resources,environment,ecology and other influencing factors of urban water resources in plateau basins. The entropy method is used to weight each evaluation index,and the set pair analysis and obstacle degree model is used to evaluate the water resources vulnerability of the Yunlong Reservoir water resources in Kunming from2014 to 2019.The results show that the vulnerability of Yunlong Reservoir’s water resource was strongly vulnerable in 2014,and moderately vulnerable from 2015 to 2019. The confidence value of its middle-level vulnerability has been increasing year by year,and the vulnerability of water resources has gradually decreased,indicating that the implemented water resources management policies have achieved results.Judging from the diagnosis results of the obstacles in the various subsystems of the evaluation model,the pressure,status,and influence subsystems’ obstacles played a dominant role from 2014 to 2015,the influence and response subsystem played a leading role from 2016 to2018,and the pressure and influence subsystem played a leading role in 2019,and subsystem obstacles have a greater impact. It is suggested that the sound development of water resources security should be promoted from the perspective of the system theory,the water quality management and control of water source areas should be strengthened,and the comprehensive development and governance of water resources should be strengthened.

关 键 词：DPSIRM模型 水资源脆弱性评价 熵权法 集对分析 障碍诊断 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]