中国水产品对美出口增长效应分析——基于CMS模型  

Analysis on the export growth effect of Chinese aquatic products to the U.S.——based on the CMS Model

作　　者：张全 杨正勇[1] ZHANG Quan;YANG Zheng-yong(College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2022年第1期12-21,共10页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：财政部和农业农村部:国家现代农业产业技术体系资助(CARS-47)。

摘　　要：基于2001-2020年中美水产品贸易数据,利用CMS模型对中国水产品对美出口增长效应分解,并进一步对鱼类和非鱼类水产品进行分类研究。结果表明:除2018-2020年外,市场规模效应对中国水产品对美出口具有促进作用;中国水产品对美出口产品结构与美国市场需求结构不匹配;中国水产品对美出口竞争力持续减弱,尤其是鱼类水产品。鉴于此,应在"双循环"新发展格局下提高中国水产品国内国际市场占有率,在兼顾国际市场的同时,重点扩大国内水产品市场需求,促进国内大循环。Based on the data of Sino-US aquatic product trade from 2001 to 2020,the CMS Model is used to analyze the growth effect of Chinese aquatic products to the United States,and further classify fish and non-fish aquatic products.The results show that except 2018-2020,the market scale effect will promote the export of Chinese aquatic products to the U.S.;the structure of Chinese aquatic products’ export to the U.S.does not match the structure of U.S.market demand;the competitiveness of Chinese aquatic products’ exports to the U.S.continues to weaken,especially fish aquatic products.In view of this,it is necessary to increase the domestic and international market share of China’s aquatic products under the new development pattern of double circulation.While taking into account the international market,we will focus on expanding the domestic aquatic product market demand and promoting the domestic circulation.

关 键 词：水产品出口 中美贸易 CMS模型 出口增长效应 “双循环”新发展格局 

分 类 号：F326.406[经济管理—产业经济]