中美贸易摩擦双方木质林产品加征关税的经济效应  

The Economic Effect of Imposing Tariffson Wood Products in US-China Trade friction

作　　者：田明华[1] 余梦妍 魏僮 胡田琦 唐莹 TIAN Minghua;YU Mengyan;WEI Tong;HU Tianqi;TANG Ying(School of Economics & Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2022年第2期113-121,共9页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJY196)。

摘　　要：基于2012—2017年中美木质林产品贸易数据,首先采用Armington替代弹性模型估计中美木质林产品在对方市场的替代弹性,然后将替代弹性引入SMART模型测算中美双方木质林产品加征关税的经济效应。结果表明:在中美贸易摩擦背景下,中国木质林产品在美国市场的可替代性高于美国木质林产品在中国市场的可替代性;中美贸易摩擦中中国木质林产品的贸易损失大,但福利损失小;中国木质家具、纸和纸板、木制品等加工型产品的对美出口面临出口大量减少威胁;随着美国加征关税的逐步实施,加征关税的贸易效应逐步显现;中国对美国木质林产品加征关税结构仍有优化空间。为了减少中美双方木质林产品加征关税引发的不利影响,必须寻找出口替代市场、降低可替代性、优化加征关税结构、加快实施“双循环”战略。⑴Background——Measuring the economic effect of tariff increases on wood products between China and the United States,comparing the gains and losses,and simulating China's tariff plan for wood products in response to the trade friction are conducive to optimizing China's anti-tariff structure of wood products and reducing the adverse impact of the US-China trade friction on China's wood products trade.⑵Methods——Based on the trade data of US-China wood products in the UN Comtrade database from 2012 to 2017,the model of Armington elasticity of substitution was constructed to estimate the Armington elasticity of substitution of US-China wood products in the other market,and the estimated substitution elasticity was introduced into the local equilibrium analysis tool SMART model.Based on the trade data of wood products from various countries in the UNCTAD TRAINS database,the economic effects of tariff increase on US-China wood products in the US-China trade friction were calculated by product categories.⑶Results——The estimation results of the model of Armington elasticity of substitution show that the substitutability of Chinese wood products in the US market is higher than that of American wood products in the Chinese market.In the tariff increases on wood products imposed by China and the US,Chinese wood products are in a disadvantageous situation.China should adopt differentiated tariff countermeasures according to the Armington elasticity of substitution of American wood products in the Chinese market.The results of SMART model on trade creation effect and trade transfer effect confirm that China's wood products are facing greater export losses in US-China trade friction,and show that the high import transfer rate of China's wood products is an important reason for China's export losses.The calculation results of tariff effect and welfare effect confirm that the US-China trade friction is a double-loss outcome for the two countries,but the welfare loss of the United States is much greater than tha

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 木质林产品 加征关税 经济效应 Armington替代弹性 

分 类 号：F752.56[经济管理—国际贸易]