物流绩效对中国木质林产品出口贸易的影响——基于“一带一路”合作国家的实证分析  

Study on the Impact of Logistics Performance on the Export Trade of China's Wood Products Based on the Empirical Analysis of the Belt and Road Cooperation Countries

作　　者：施正煌 郑雅静 戴永务[1,3] 林伟明 黄国星[1] SHI Zhenghuang;ZHENG Yajing;DAI Yongwu;LIN Weiming;HUANG Guoxing(College of Economics and Management,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 250002,China;Jinshan College,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 250002,China;Collective forestry Reform and Development Research Center,A New Type of Think Tank WithCharacteristics of Universities in Fujian,Fuzhou 250002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学经济管理学院,福州350002 [2]福建农林大学金山学院,福州350002 [3]福建省高校特色新型智库集体林业改革发展研究中心,福州350002

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2022年第2期122-131,共10页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71703024、71973027);福建省高校特色新型智库集体林业改革发展研究中心建设专项(K80RAQ04A)。

摘　　要：木质林产品具有体积大、单位价值低的物流特性,中国与贸易伙伴国的物流绩效可能影响中国木质林产品出口贸易动能。基于世界银行发布的国别物流绩效指数数据,以中国物流绩效指数与“一带一路”合作国家物流绩效指数的交互项为解释变量,检验物流绩效对中国与“一带一路”合作国家木质林产品出口贸易的影响。结果表明:物流绩效改善能显著促进中国对“一带一路”合作国家的木质林产品出口增长;物流绩效、与中国贸易紧密度等变量能够有效缓解距离对中国木质林产品出口贸易的阻碍作用。因此,首先要强化“一带一路”贸易优势,拓宽合作国家木质林产品贸易市场;然后借助“一带一路”区位优势,发展共建物流基础设施模式;最后发挥“一带一路”平台优势,建立和维护农林类贸易协定组织。⑴Background——Wood products have the logistics characteristics of large size and low unit value.The logistics performance of China and its trading partner countries may affect the export trade momentum of China's wood products.For this reason,studying the impact of logistics performance on the trade of wood products in the Belt and Road cooperative countries has strong practical significance.⑵Methods——Firstly,Interaction terms of the bilateral logistics performance index between related countries and China was introduced,ant it was taken as the core explanatory variables and other control variables closely related to the trade of wood products such as the forest resource endowment.Then,expanded trade gravity model was established,which is related to the trade of wood products in the Belt and Road cooperation countries.Finally,after processing the bilateral logistics performance index for a period of lag,the trade volume and related data of wood products exported from China to 77 sample countries in the even-numbered years from 2010 to 2018 are used for model regression.⑶Results——Employing STATA 15.0 software to the expanded trade gravity model,it was found that the core explanatory variable——bilateral logistics performance index,performed prominently in the overall regression.Its regression coefficient far exceeded other control variables affected the export trade of wood products and are statistically significant,indicating that the bilateral logistics performance index presents a stable and core role in this model.Under the influence of bilateral logistics performance index and trade dependence with China,the distance variable changes from significant negatively to insignificant in the stepwise regression results,indicating that under the influence of multiple variables,distance has a hindering effect on wood products.It is foreseeable that with the improvement of the logistics performance index of the Belt and Road countries and the in-depth development of the Belt and Road trade agreement

关 键 词：木质林产品 物流绩效 “一带一路”倡议 出口贸易 面板数据 

分 类 号：F326.23[经济管理—产业经济]