基于概率统计的页岩气探明可采储量评估方法探讨——以川渝地区某页岩气开发区块为例  

Discussion on evaluation method of proved recoverable reserves of shale gas based on probability statistics--A case study on one developed shale gas block in Chuanyu Area

作　　者：陈劲松[1] 郭莉[1] 宗国洪[1] 年静波[1] 韩洪宝[1] CHEN Jinsong;GUO Li;ZONG Guohong;NIAN Jingbo;HAN Hongbao(Sinochem Petroleum Exploration & Production Co. , Ltd. , Beijing 100031, China)

机构地区：[1]中化石油勘探开发有限公司,北京100031

出　　处：《非常规油气》2022年第2期49-57,共9页Unconventional Oil & Gas

摘　　要：由于页岩气开发自身的特点以及从投产井获得的资料十分有限,技术和经济关键参数存在较大的不确定性,因此在评估页岩气开发项目可采储量时,可采储量的大小及其经济性也存在较高的不确定性和风险。为了定量描述和分析页岩气可采储量的风险,该文从概率统计的角度出发,建立基于改进ARPS双曲递减产量预测模块和国内财税机制现金流评价模块的一体化评估模型。通过对页岩气开发初期区块的实例评估可知,采用概率分布来定义技术和经济关键参数的范围以及描述页岩气可采储量评估结果的范围,相对于确定性法,能获得更多的信息1)一体化评估模型在模拟后获得不同概率下的技术可采储量及其对应的产量预测剖面,可以定量描述技术可采储量结果存在的风险;2)经济评价模拟不仅给出满足规范要求的经济可采储量结果,而且定量说明项目经济性存在的风险;3)页岩气可采储量不确定性法评估是一项持续的技术工作,需要根据开发井数的不断增加、单井生产动态变化以及项目实际经济条件变化适时更新,以反映页岩气项目的实际开发状况。In the evaluation of recoverable reserves of shale gas development projects,due to the characteristics of shale gas development and the limited data obtained from production wells,there are great uncertainties in key technical and economic parameters,so the size of recoverable reserves and its economy also have high uncertainties and risks.For quantitative description and analysis of the risk of shale gas recoverable reserves,from the perspective of probability and statistics,this paper set up based on improved ARPS hyperbolic decline rate prediction module and domestic fiscal and taxation mechanism cash flow evaluation model of integrated evaluation module,through the instance of the assessment at the beginning of the development of shale gas blocks,the evaluation of shale gas recoverable reserves,probability distribution is used to define the technology and economic scope of key parameters and describes the results of the assessment scope,compared with the deterministic method,can get more information:1)After the integrated evaluation model in the simulation of technical recoverable reserves under different probability and its corresponding output forecasting section,can quantitatively describe the results of technical recoverable reserves of risks;2)Economic evaluation simulation not only gives the results of economically recoverable reserves that meet the requirements of the specification,but also quantitatively explains the economic risks of the project;3)Shale gas recoverable reserves uncertainty method is a continuous technical work,which needs to be updated timely according to the increasing number of development wells,the dynamic changes of single well production and the actual economic conditions of the project,so as to reflect the actual development status of shale gas projects.

关 键 词：页岩气 探明可采储量 产量预测 经济评价 蒙特卡洛模拟 净现值 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TE15[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]