中山市水资源系统动态模拟与敏感性分析  

Dynamic simulation and sensitivity analysis of water resources system in Zhongshan City

作　　者：关雪桦 陈志和 叶智恒 GUAN Xuehua;CHEN Zhihe;YE Zhiheng(School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China;School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学土木工程学院,广东珠海519082 [2]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《水资源保护》2022年第2期103-111,共9页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51879291)。

摘　　要：为满足区域水资源可持续开发与高效利用条件下中山市未来的社会经济发展需求,构建了系统动力学模型,模拟中山市经济社会、水资源供需及水环境的变化趋势,采用了熵权TOPSIS模型进行参数敏感性分析,综合评价不同参数变化对2030年和2040年水质、水量以及经济社会的影响。结果表明:常规发展模式下,中山市水资源供需矛盾逐渐凸显,水环境恶化愈发严重;控制用水量的方案对促进区域可持续发展的作用较为明显,且万元工业(不含火电)增加值用水量的减少产生效果最为显著;不同参数调整方案对水资源系统近期及远期的影响不尽相同,为使水资源管理政策更加适合长远的发展,应重视远期作用明显的参数调整方案。To meet social and economic development needs of Zhongshan City in the future under conditions of sustainable development and efficient utilization of regional water resources,a system dynamics model was established to simulate the changing trends of economic society,water resources supply and demand,and water environment in Zhongshan City.The entropy weight TOPSIS model was used to analyze the sensitivity of parameters,and comprehensively evaluate the effects of different parameter changes on the water quality,water quantity,and economic society in 2030 and 2040.The results show that under the conventional development mode,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Zhongshan City becomes increasingly prominent,and the deterioration of water environment becomes more serious.Controlling the amount of water consumption has more obvious effect on promoting the regional sustainable development,and the reduction of water consumption of industrial(without including thermal power) added value per ten thousand Yuan has the most significant effect.Different parameter adjustment schemes have different short-term and long-term effects on the water resources system.To make water resources management policies more suitable for long-term development,more attention should be paid to parameter adjustment schemes with obvious long-term effects.

关 键 词：水资源管理 系统动力学 TOPSIS模型 动态模拟 敏感性分析 中山市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]