基于WRF模型的澎溪河流域非点源污染预测  

Prediction of non-point source pollution in Pengxi River Basin based on WRF model

作　　者：张万顺[1,2,3] 卜思凡 彭虹[4] 夏函 朱磊 刘馨 ZHANG Wanshun;BU Sifan;PENG Hong;XIA Han;ZHU Lei;LIU Xin(School of Resource and Environmental Sciences,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;China Institute of Development Strategy and Planning,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [3]武汉大学中国发展战略与规划研究院,湖北武汉430072 [4]武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水资源保护》2022年第2期160-167,共8页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41877531)。

摘　　要：为精准揭示三峡库区澎溪河流域非点源污染的空间异质性特征,基于WRF模型,构建了反映流域3 km×3 km精细格点降水的流域非点源污染模拟预测模型,对澎溪河流域非点源负荷进行模拟预测。结果表明:与由澎溪河流域6个气象站点2009—2012年观测降水资料得到的径流模拟结果相比,基于WRF模型输出降水的径流模拟精度提高了27%,总磷质量浓度模拟精度提高了31%,总氮质量浓度模拟精度提高了36%;采用WRF模型输出降水模拟的年径流量范围为35.28亿~54.04亿m^(3),总磷负荷均值为1 151.35 t/a,总氮负荷均值为11 759.72 t/a;澎溪河流域总磷、总氮非点源负荷较高的子流域单元多呈集聚状分布在河流水系附近,空间异质性明显。In order to accurately reveal the spatial heterogeneity of non-point source pollution in the Pengxi River Basin of the Three Gorges Reservoir area,this paper establishes a simulation and prediction model for non-point source pollution in the Pengxi River Basin based on the WRF model,which reflects the precipitation on a fine grid with the size of 3 km×3 km.The results show that the simulation accuracy of runoff based on WRF precipitation data is 27% higher than that obtained based on the precipitation data of six meteorological stations in the Pengxi River Basin from 2009 to 2012,and the simulation accuracies of the concentration of total phosphorus(TP) and total nitrogen(TN) are increased by 31% and 36%,respectively.The annual runoff simulated with WRF precipitation data ranges from 3.528 billion to 5.404 billion m^(3),and the average TP and TN loads are 1 151.35 t/a and 11 759.72 t/a,respectively.Monitoring data show that the sub-basin units with higher TP and TN non-point source loads in the Pengxi River Basin are concentrated near the river system,with obvious spatial heterogeneity.

关 键 词：WRF模型 非点源污染 空间异质性 降水模拟 径流模拟 澎溪河流域 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]