影响2021年西北太平洋副热带高压的春季环境因子的特征分析  

The Characteristic Analysis of the Springtime Environmental Factors for the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in 2021

作　　者：翁锦文 甘秋莹 彭旭钢 王磊 WENG Jin-wen(Laboratory for Coastal Ocean Variation and Disaster Prediction,College of Ocean and Meteorology,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang,Gaungdong 524088)

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院,广东湛江524088 [2]广东海洋大学近海海洋环境变化与灾害预警实验室,广东湛江524088

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2021年第11期74-78,共5页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41776031);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506903);广东省普通高校创新团队项目(2019KCXTF021);广东海洋大学博士启动科研基金项目(R17051)。

摘　　要：对2021年春季影响西太副高的3种春季环境因子(热带印度洋与西北太平洋海域海表面温度异常(SSTA)的差值、赤道中太平洋5月与3月SSTA的差值、北大西洋涛动指数)的特征进行了分析。结果显示:2021年春季热带印度洋与西北太平洋海域SSTA的差值表现为负异常(-0.32℃)、赤道中太平洋5月与3月的SSTA差值表现为弱的正异常(0.02℃)、北大西洋涛动指数则出现负异常(-0.79)。利用3个春季环境因子构建的预报方程对2021年夏季西太副高指数的预报值为-0.44,这与2021年夏季西太副高指数的实测值(0.28)存在一些偏差。春季热带印度洋与西北太平洋的SSTA差值在3个环境因子中对2021年西太副高的预报结果有着最大的贡献,西北太平洋海域SSTA的暖异常可能是引起2021年夏季西太副高预报强度偏弱的重要原因。通过对比2021年夏季各月的西太副高指数观测值发现,8月与7月的西太副高指数存在较大差异,夏季各月之间差异的增大可能是导致预报结果不理想的原因。在西太副高的预报方面,需要进一步针对夏季各月之间差异较大的情况改进预报方法。In this study,analyzed the characteristics of three springtime environmental factors which affect the summertime WNPSH in 2021,including the difference of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)between the Indian Ocean(IO)and western north Pacific(WNP),May-minusMarch SSTA in the equatorial central Pacific and the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)index.In the spring of 2021,the difference of the SSTA between IO and WNP showed a negative anomaly(-0.32℃),May-minusMarch SSTA in the equatorial central Pacific had a weak positive anomaly(0.02℃),and the NAO Index presented a negative anomaly(-0.79).Based on the prediction equation constructed by using these three springtime environmental factors,the forecast value of the WNPSH index in the summer of 2021 was-0.44,which deviated from the observed value(0.28)of the WNPSH index in the summer of 2021.The difference of SSTA between IO and WNP in the spring of 2021 had the greatest contribution to the prediction result of the WNPSH in 2021 among the three spring environmental factors.In addition,the warm SSTA in the WNP may be an important reason for the weaker intensity of the predicted WNPSH in the summer of 2021.By comparing observed values of the WNPSH index in each month,we find that there exist obvious differences between the WNPSH index in July and August.The unsatisfactory prediction results of the prediction model may be ascribed to the increase of the difference between months in summer.In terms of the WNPSH prediction,it is necessary to further improve the prediction method especially for the situation with great differences among summer months.

关 键 词：西北太平洋副热带高压 春季环境因子 海温异常 印太海温纬向梯度 北大西洋涛动 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]