基于SEIR模型的网络医疗众筹传播建模与仿真分析  

Modelling and Simulating Medical Crowdfunding with SEIR

作　　者：曹广 沈丽宁[1,2] Cao Guang;Shen Lining(School of Medicine and Health Management,Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430030,China;Hubei Center for Health Technology Evaluation and Research,Wuhan 430030,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院,武汉430030 [2]湖北省卫生技术评估研究中心,武汉430030

出　　处：《数据分析与知识发现》2022年第1期80-90,共11页Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery

基　　金：华中科技大学自主创新研究基金(人文社科)项目(项目编号:2019WKYXZX011)的研究成果之一。

摘　　要：【目的】探究网络医疗众筹传播机理和筹资的公平性。【方法】分析医疗众筹项目的传播过程,结合SEIR模型考虑个体特征和决策行为,基于NetworkX建立医疗众筹传播模型并进行仿真实验。【结果】在传播过程上,发起者节点度、项目感染力和网络结构影响项目的传播速度和范围。在筹资公平性上,发起者节点度、项目感染力和个体财富与项目筹款金额正相关(相关系数为0.49、0.47和0.63);众筹前后社会财富向更富者聚集;个体出资不满足"定比"方式。【局限】模型考虑的人群特征较少,未考虑性别、年龄、职业背景等。【结论】仿真模型能够有效模拟医疗众筹在社交媒体上的传播过程,为探究医疗众筹的筹款能力和对医疗资源的筹资公平性提供方法支持。[Objective]This paper tries to explore the dissemination mechanism and the equity issues of online medical crowdfunding.[Methods]First,we analyzed the diffusion process of medical crowdfunding.Then,we used the SEIR model to study the participants’characteristics and their decision-making behaviors.Finally,we developed the diffusion model of medical crowdfunding based on NetworkX and examined it with simulation experiments.[Results]We found that the node degree of the initiator,the appeal of the project,and the network structure affected the propagation speed and scope of the project.In the equity of financing,the node degree of the initiator,the appeal of the project,and individual wealth affected the amount of fundraising with correlation coefficients of 0.49,0.47 and 0.63.We also found the“rich got richer”effects and the individual contribution did not reflect the“fixed ratio”way.[Limitations]The model considers few demographic characteristics,such as gender,age,occupational background,etc.[Conclusions]The proposed model could effectively simulate the diffusion process of medical crowdfunding projects on social media,which also explores their fundraising ability and the financing equity issues.

关 键 词：信息传播模型 医疗众筹 筹资水平 建模仿真 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]