东中国海水动力短期预报系统的构建及适用性研究  

Study on an Operational Short Term Forecasting System of the East China Sea and Its Sensitivity to External Forcings

作　　者：庹文豪 荣增瑞 于晓林[2] Tuo Wenhao;Rong Zengrui;Yu Xiaolin(College of Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;The Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography. Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第4期12-22,共11页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家重点研究发展计划项目(2016YFC1402000);中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目(201762032);山东省重大科技创新工程项目(2021CXGC010705)资助。

摘　　要：本文基于中国近海高分辨率ROMS(Regional Ocean Modeling System)海洋模式和“两洋一海”海洋-大气耦合预报系统,构建了由区域到近海的降尺度预报框架,建立了东中国海水动力短期预报系统。预报系统采用后报-预报循环计算方式运行,可以合理避免误差累积。结合多源观测海表面温度和海表面高度资料,评估了系统的模拟技巧,并进一步讨论了东中国海动力环境对海洋和大气强迫变化的敏感性。结果表明:不同模式对中尺度涡的模拟差异会影响黑潮流量变化,并进一步影响东中国海水动力环境的模拟和预报,台湾以东的反气旋式涡旋会增强黑潮东侧的水位,增大黑潮流量,黑潮次表层水跨陆坡向岸入侵的范围和存留时间都会减小。“两洋一海”海洋-大气耦合预报系统模拟的台风强度与全球预报系统GFS(Global Forecasting System)相比偏弱,对应的海洋响应也偏弱,简单增大风场强度而不改变海气界面其它状态变量会高估海洋对台风的响应,是需要关注的模拟误差。Forecasting of ocean circulation and water property has great significance to the early warning and prevention of marine dynamic and ecological disasters.Based on a well-validated regional ocean modeling system(ROMS)of the East China Sea(ECS)and the Asia-Pacific regional coupled prediction system(APRCP),a downscaling short-term forecasting system is conducted for the East China Sea.The forecasting system runs in a manner of continuous analysis-forecast cycle,so that it can avoid the accumulation of errors effectively.Comparison with multi-sensor observed sea surface temperature and sea level anomaly confirm that the system is able to reproduce the general spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature and sea level anomaly.The sensitivity of the ECS forecasting system to the coupled and uncoupled oceanic-atmospheric forcing is then discussed.Results show that skill of the external model in reproducing mesoscale eddies would affect the downscaling cross-slope intrusion of Kuroshio substantially.When anticyclonic eddy in presented in hybird coordinate ocean model(HYCOM)but not in APRCP,the Kuroshio transport east of Taiwan is enhanced,the onshore intrusion of the Kuroshio subsurface water,however,is weakened.Comparison between global forecasting system(GFS)and Asia-Pacific regional coupled prediction system(APRCP)show that the intensity of typhoon in the coupled APRCP is weaker,and thus a weakened oceanic response is observed in the downscaling oceanic simulation.Simply increase in the wind speed,without considering the air-sea feedback,however,will overestimate the oceanic response.

关 键 词：东中国海 短期预报 海洋-大气耦合强迫 黑潮入侵 台风 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学]