基于灰色GM(1,1)-SVM组合模型的广东省卫生总费用预测研究  

Prediction of total health expenditure in Guangdong, based on GM(1,1)-SVM Combination Model

作　　者：鲍晓露 向国春 史卢少博 王冬 BAO Xiao-lu;XIANG Guo-chun;SHI Lu-shaobo;WANG Dong(School of Health Management,Southern Medical University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510515,China)

机构地区：[1]南方医科大学卫生管理学院,广东广州510515

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2022年第5期856-859,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：广东省高校哲学社科重点实验室:“公共卫生政策研究与评价”重点实验(2015WSYS0010);广州市人文社会科学重点研究基地:“广州市公共卫生服务体系建设研究基地”(2021-2023年)。

摘　　要：目的分析广东省卫生总费用及其占GDP比重的发展趋势,为相关卫生费用政策调整提供决策依据。方法选取广东省2001—2019年的卫生总费用及占GDP比重数据,构建灰色GM(1, 1)-SVM组合模型,对广东省卫生费用筹资规模进行预测。结果 GM(1, 1)-SVM组合模型在卫生总费用及占GDP比重方面具有更好的预测效果,二者预测结果均呈现增长趋势。结论 GM(1, 1)-SVM组合模型对卫生总费用及占GDP比重的预测具有实际应用价值,为保障卫生费用可持续发展,应合理控制筹资水平,优化调整费用结构。Objective To analyze the development trend of the total health expenditure and its GDP share in Guangdong Province, so as to provide the decision-making basis for related health expenditure policy. Methods Based on the data of the total health expenditure and its GDP share from 2001 to 2019 in Guangdong Province, a GM(1, 1)-SVM combination model was built to predict the financing scale of total health expenditure. Results The combined GM(1, 1)-SVM model had a better prediction effect in terms of the total health expenditure and its GDP share, and the prediction results of both of them showed an increasing trend. Conclusion The combined model of GM(1, 1)-SVM has practical application value in predicting the total health expenditure and its GDP share. In order to ensure the sustainable development of health expenditure, Guangdong Province needs to reasonably control the financing level and further optimize expenditure structure.

关 键 词：卫生总费用 筹资规模 组合模型 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]