我国社会融资结构对宏观杠杆率的动态影响研究  

The Dynamic Influence of China's Social Financing Structure on Macro Leverage Ratio

作　　者：周付 朱力[1] ZHOU Fu;ZHU Li(Institute of Economics,Anhui University,Hefei,Anhui 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《沧州师范学院学报》2022年第1期69-75,共7页Journal of Cangzhou Normal University

基　　金：安徽省哲学科学规划重点项目“习近平总书记关于宏观调控重要叙述研究”,编号:AHSKZ2019D026.

摘　　要：间接融资主导的金融结构是导致宏观杠杆率持续攀升的重要原因.通过将社会融资进一步细分为间接融资、直接融资和表外融资,深入分析社会融资结构变动对我国宏观杠杆率的动态影响.研究结果显示,间接融资占比提高推动了宏观杠杆率的上升;增加直接融资能够有效约束宏观杠杆率的攀升;加强金融监管有利于减弱表外融资对宏观杠杆率的正向冲击效应;总体看,宏观杠杆率对融资结构变化的响应存在明显时变特征.鉴于此,完善间接融资的市场化机制,提升间接融资的资金配置效率,大力发展直接融资,加强表外融资监管是当前稳杠杆的有效措施.It is generally believed that the financial structure dominated by indirect financing is an important reason for the high leverage ratio in China.By further subdividing social financing into indirect financing,direct financing and off-balance sheet financing,the dynamic impact of social financing structure changes on China's macro leverage ratio is analyzed.The results show that the increase of indirect financing ratio promotes the macro leverage ratio;while the increase of direct financing can effectively restrain the macro leverage ratio.Strengthening financial supervision is conducive to reducing the positive impact of off-balance sheet financing on macro leverage ratio.In general,there are obvious time-varying characteristics in the response of the macro leverage ratio to the changes of financing structure.In view of this,the strengthening of market-oriented mechanism of indirect financing,improvement of the efficiency of capital allocation and the direct financing,and the strengthening the supervision of off balance sheet financing are effective measures to stabilize the current leverage.

关 键 词：社会融资结构 宏观杠杆率 TVP-VAR 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]