改革开放以来中国区域人口与经济重心演进态势及其影响因素  

Evolution Trend and Influencing Factors of Regional Population and Economy Gravity Center in China Since the Reform and Opening-up

作　　者：梁龙武 先乐 陈明星[1,2] LIANG Longwu;XIAN Yue;CHEN Mingxing(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《经济地理》2022年第2期93-103,共11页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171204、41822104);中国科学院战略重点研究计划(XDA23100301)。

摘　　要：区域协调发展是中国高质量可持续发展和建成富强民主文明和谐美丽的社会主义现代化强国的必然要求,是新时代中国区域经济发展的重要方向。基于此,文章采用1978─2018年中国省域人口和GDP数据,探究四大区域人口与经济重心演进态势及其影响机制。结果显示:(1)四大区域人口与经济重心演进态势差异显著。整体上,人口重心东部向西南移动,中部向东北移动,西部向西北移动,东北向西南移动;经济重心东部向西南移动,中部移动方向持续变化,西部和东北均向西南和东北往复移动。(2)社会经济要素对区域人口密度的影响系数整体较小,工业化水平、交通便利度对人口密度影响相对较大。(3)工业化水平、市场繁荣度对区域经济增长影响相对较大,城镇化与交通便利度对经济增长影响相对较小,经济增长应遵循多要素累积效应的阶段性规律。The regional coordinated development is an inevitable requirement for China to maintain high-quality and sustainable development and build a prosperous,strong,democratic,culturally advanced,harmonious and beautiful socialist modernization power. It is also an important direction of China’s regional economy development in the new era. Based on this, the paper uses China’s provincial population and GDP data from 1978 to 2018 to study the evolution trend of population and economy gravity centers,and their influence mechanism in four regions. The results show that: 1) There are significant differences in population and economy gravity centers among the four regions. On the whole, the population gravity centers moved to the southwest of the eastern region,the northeast of the central region,the northwest of the western region and the southwest of the northeastern region. The economy gravity centers moved to the southwest of the eastern region,the movement direction continued to change in the central region,and moved back and forth to the southwest and northeast of the western and northeastern regions. 2) The influence coefficients of socio-economic factors on population density in different regions were relatively small,while the influences of industrialization level and traffic convenience on population density were relatively large. 3) The industrialization level and market prosperity had the relatively large influence coefficients on economy growth in different regions, while urbanization and transportation convenience had the relatively small influences on economy growth. The economy growth should follow the periodic law of multi-factor cumulative effect.

关 键 词：人口重心 经济重心 重心演进态势 工业化水平 城市化水平 区域协调发展 

分 类 号：F119.9[经济管理—国际贸易]