内陆型自贸区的经济外部性:“辐射效应”还是“虹吸效应”?  

The Economic Effects of Inland Pilot Free Trade Zone on Its Hinterland Cities:"Siphonic Effect" or "Radiation Effect"?

作　　者：胡艺[1] 张义坤 刘凯[3] Hu Yi;Zhang Yikun;Liu Kai

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [3]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2022年第2期54-72,M0003,共20页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于中美竞争和美国选举政治的中国与美国各州贸易关系研究”(项目编号:20BGJ057);湖北省高等学校哲学社会科学研究重大项目“双循环背景下提升湖北产业链安全稳定和现代化水平对策研究”(项目编号:21ZD013);中国(湖北)自由贸易试验区研究院项目“湖北自贸区的经济增长及溢出效应研究”(项目编号:202106)。

摘　　要：内陆型自贸区的重要功能就是优化区域发展布局,利用其经济外部性带动区域经济发展。文章基于中国145个地级市2013年1月至2019年7月的月度面板数据,采用基于面板数据的反事实分析法,以湖北自贸区为代表评估内陆型自贸区成立后的经济外部性及其时空演变。研究结果表明,内陆型自贸区中心城市对腹地城市的经济发展兼具辐射效应和虹吸效应,但整体净效应表现为辐射效应,且随着不同腹地类型的变化大致呈"倒U型"或"S型"分布,峰值在紧密腹地或次紧密腹地出现。辐射效应主要表现在规模以上工业增加值、固定资产投资和专利申请总量上,而虹吸效应则主要反映在对外商直接投资方面。自贸区的经济外部性通常在其成立一年后达到峰值,中心城市对腹地城市的技术溢出效应和外资溢出效应具有一定的时间滞后性,且表现出明显的地理特征。上述实证结果在随机更改自贸区成立时点、处理组城市和模型选择准则后仍然稳健。One of the most important functions of inland pilot free trade zone is to improve regional development pattern,play the role of external radiation and drive its hinterland cities economy. This paper uses the panel data from 145 cities of China ranging from January 2013 to July 2019 to evaluate the economic effects of inland pilot free trade zones on its hinterland cities and the spatial distribution of such effects,bases on a panel data approach for program evaluation and uses evidence from China( Hubei) Pilot Free Trade Zone Wuhan Area. The evidence shows that inland pilot free trade zones have both radiation effects and siphonic effects on its hinterland cities,where the former are the dominant effects while the latter are supplementary ones in terms of net effect. And generally the net effects on different types of hinterland cities have an inverted U-shaped or S-shaped distribution.Specifically,inland pilot free trade zones have both radiation effects and siphonic effects on its hinterland cities in terms of capital,technology and output. The radiation effects are characterized by the growth of value-added of large industrial enterprises,fixed-asset investment and the total number of patents filed of hinterland cities. While the siphonic effects are indicated by the plunge of the growth rate of foreign direct investment. Generally,both effects peaked about one year after the FTZ was founded.The technology spillover effect and the spillover effect of FDI from inland pilot free trade zones are more significant by comparation and have the lag characteristic,with the latter displaying remarkable geographical characteristics. The results are robust to the event period,the treated unit and model selection criterion.

关 键 词：内陆型自贸区 辐射效应 虹吸效应 反事实分析 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易] F127[经济管理—产业经济]