中国水污染事件时空分布、演变及影响机制研究  

Spatio-temporal distribution,evolution and influence mechanism of water pollution incidents in China

作　　者：耿雅妮[1] 戴恩华 王国兰 金梓函 张军[1,2] GENG Yani;DAI Enhua;WANG Guolan;JIN Zihan;ZHANG Jun(Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji Shaanxi 721013;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region of Ministry of Education,Chang’an University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710064)

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室,陕西宝鸡721013 [2]长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2022年第3期413-419,共7页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.41771215);旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室(长安大学)开放基金资助项目(No.300102290504);陕西省社科界重大理论与现实问题研究项目(No.2020Z042);陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室项目(No.20JS010);宝鸡市科技计划项目(No.16RKX1-13)。

摘　　要：为探究中国水污染事件时空分布特征与演变,以及社会、经济、环境管理水平与自然因素对水污染事件时空分异的影响,以中国2008—2018年1890起水污染事件为对象,基于地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析技术,利用核密度估计法(KDE)、空间自相关分析法、标准差椭圆法以及地理探测器模型等对其进行分析。结果表明:(1)水污染事件主要分布在珠三角、长三角、长江中下游、黄河中下游地区,并呈“一核多带”的空间分布特征。(2)2008—2018年水污染事件空间正相关性与聚集性逐渐增强,热点地区聚集于长三角、珠三角及长江中下游地区,并有向中西部扩张的趋势。(3)水污染事件基本分布格局为东北—西南,但标准差椭圆重心迁移频繁。(4)国内生产总值、人口与工业企业数是水污染事件时空分异的主导因子,自然因素的解释力较弱;此外,因子间通过双因子增强与非线性增强的交互作用促进了水污染事件时空分异。In order to explore the spatio-temporal distribution and evolution characters of water pollution incidents and the effect of the influencing factors including the social,economic,environmental management and natural factors on the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of water pollution incidents in China,1890 cases of water pollution incidents from 2008 to 2018 in China were investigated using the GIS technology,such as kernel density estimation,spatial autocorrelation,standard deviational ellipse,and geodetector model.The results showed that:(1)the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers region were high frequency areas of water pollution incidents,the distribution was characterized by“one core and many zones”.(2)The positive spatial correlation and aggregation of water pollution incidents from 2008 to 2018 were strengthening,hot spots were located in the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River of China,and the scope expanded to the central and western areas of China.(3)The basic distribution pattern of water pollution incidents was from northeast to southwest,but the center of gravity migrated frequently.(4)GDP,population and number of industrial enterprises were identified as the main contributors to spatio-temporal heterogeneity of water pollution incidents in China,and the explanatory power of natural factors was weak overall.In addition,the driving force of two-factor interaction was stronger than that of a single factor,and the interaction types were non-linear enhancement and two-factor enhancement.

关 键 词：水污染事件 时空分布 时空演变 地理探测器模型 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]