台风大风预报研究回顾  

Overview of research advances in forecasting of typhoon gale

作　　者：李丽芳 任福民[1] 刘春霞[2] 万齐林[2] LI Lifang;REN Fumin;LIU Chunxia;WAN Qilin(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080, China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东广州510080

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2022年第1期50-60,共11页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：广东省重点领域研发计划项目(2019B111101002);深圳市科技计划项目(KCXFZ20201221173610028);国家自然科学基金项目(41675042)。

摘　　要：大风是台风引发的三大灾害之一,考虑到现有的台风大风研究相对较少、预报经验也比较不足,因此对其预报方法进行回顾总结具有十分重要的意义。从经验预报、统计预报、数值模式预报及数值预报产品释用等4个方向梳理了台风大风预报技术的研究与应用现状:天气图、卫星云图和雷达图是经验预报中非常重要的工具;统计预报根据方法的不同可细分为回归预报、客观相似预报和气候持续性预报;数值模式预报方面,国内外多家机构都研发了相应的台风大风预报产品;数值预报产品的释用目前则包含了动力释用、统计释用和人工智能释用。同时总结了上述4类预报方法各自的优势和不足。最后,讨论了未来研究与实际业务中进一步提高台风大风预报能力的可能发展方向。Gale weather is one of the three severe disasters caused by typhoons.Considering that the research and forecasting experience associated with typhoon gale are now relatively less,it is of great significance to have an overview of the research advances in the forecasting of typhoon gale.This paper reviews the research and application status of the forecasting technologies for typhoon gale from 4 perspectives,including empirical forecasting,statistical forecasting,numerical forecasting,and interpretation of numerical forecasting products.Weather maps,satellite cloud imageries,and radar maps play a vital role in empirical forecasting;the statistical forecasting makes use of regression method,objective analog method,and climatic persistence method;in terms of the numerical forecasting,many institutions at home and abroad have developed corresponding forecasting products;the interpretation of numerical forecasting products currently includes dynamic interpretation,statistical interpretation,and artificial intelligence interpretation.At the same time,the respective advantages and disadvantages of the above-mentioned 4 forecasting methods are summarized.Finally,the possible direction of improving the forecasting ability of typhoon gale in research and practice is discussed.

关 键 词：台风大风 数值模式 预报 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]