新冠疫情对我国制造业的影响——基于股票市场回报的实证研究  

Study on the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on China’s manufacturing industry:an empirical study based on stock market returns

作　　者：张月花[1] 杨林 薛伟贤[1,2] ZHANG Yuehua;YANG Lin;XUE Weixian(Faculty of Economics and Management,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710054,China;Institute of Social Economic System Management and Policy,Xi’an Science and Technology Think Tank,Xi’an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710054 [2]西安市科技创新智库社会经济系统管理与政策研究院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2021年第4期460-467,共8页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

基　　金：陕西省软科学研究计划项目(2020KRM184);西安市科技计划软科学研究项目(XA2020-RKXYJ-0084)。

摘　　要：2020年新冠疫情的出现使我国制造业向高质量转型发展面临巨大挑战。为了探究新冠疫情对制造业发展的影响,论文从股票市场角度出发,基于2020年1月11日至7月11日沪、深两市所有制造业上市公司面板数据,采用固定效应模型就新冠疫情对我国制造业股票市场回报的影响问题展开研究。实证结果显示:我国制造业股票市场回报与新冠疫情确诊病例增长速度呈倒“U”型关系,而与死亡病例增长速度呈线性负相关关系;新冠疫情对不同类型制造业的影响存在显著差异。结论表明,新冠疫情对我国制造业发展产生了先增强再逐渐减弱的边际影响。据此,为我国政府、制造型企业以及投资者应对突发公共事件提供决策依据。In 2020,the emergence of COVID-19 epidemic has posed great challenges to the high-quality transformation and development of China’s manufacturing industry.To explore the effects of COVID-19 epidemic on the development of manufacturing industry,from the perspective of the stock market,this paper is based on the panel data of all listed manufacturing companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 11 to July 11,2020,with the fixed effect model used to study the effects of COVID-19 epidemic on manufacturing stock market returns.The empirical results show that China’s manufacturing stock market returns have an inverted U-shaped relationship at the growth rate of confirmed cases,while having a linear negative relationship at the growth rate of fatal cases.There are significant differences in the effects of COVID-19 epidemic on different types of manufacturing.The conclusion shows that the COVID-19 epidemic has had marginal effects on the development of manufacturing industry that were first strengthened and then gradually weakened.Accordingly,it provides a decision-making basis for Chinese government,manufacturing enterprises and investors to deal with public emergencies.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 制造业 股票市场 股票市场回报 固定效应模型 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]