基于Molchan方法的山西地区流体资料预测效能检验  

Predictive Efficiency Test of Fluid Data in Shanxi Area Based on Molchan Method

作　　者：吕芳[1,3] 向阳 郭文峰 穆慧敏[1,3] 李艳[1,3] LV Fang;XIANG Yang;GUO Wen-feng;MU Hui-min;LI Yan(Shanxi Earthquake Agency, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030021, China;China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing, 100083, China;National Continental Rift Valley Dynamics Observatory of Taiyuan, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030025, China)

机构地区：[1]山西省地震局,山西太原030021 [2]中国矿业大学,北京100083 [3]太原大陆裂谷动力学国家野外科学观测研究站,山西太原030025

出　　处：《山西地震》2022年第1期31-35,共5页Earthquake Research in Shanxi

基　　金：山西省基础研究计划项目(20210302124049);中国地震局地质研究所国家野外科学观测研究站研究课题(NORSTY2021-02);2018年度震情跟踪定向工作任务(2018010319)。

摘　　要：以山西地区观测时间长并有震例积累的流体观测资料为研究对象,采用Molchan图表法对其预测效能进行定量化检验,归纳出中强地震前流体异常判别指标。得出,山西地区流体资料对山西中北部地震具有较好的预测效果。其中,短期、长期异常较多,中期异常较少。研究成果可为短临预报与背景性地震预测提供参考。Taking the observation data of fluid with long observation time and accumulated earthquake cases in Shanxi area as the research object,the Molchan chart method is used to quantitatively check the prediction efficiency,and the discrimination indexes of fluid anomalies before moderate and strong earthquakes are concluded.It can be concluded that the fluid data in Shanxi area has a good prediction effect on earthquakes in north-central of Shanxi,in which there are many short-term and long-term anomalies and few medium-term anomalies.The research results can provide reference for short-term and background earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：地下流体 异常特征 Molchan检验 山西地区 

分 类 号：P315.723[天文地球—地震学]