农用能源价格波动对区域粮食生产的影响——基于价格内生局部均衡模型的分析  

Impact of Agricultural Energy Price Fluctuation on Regional Grain Production——Analysis Based on Price Endogenous Local Equilibrium Model

作　　者：马永喜[1,2] 孙亚丽 王娟丽[3] MA Yong-xi;SUN Ya-li;WANG Juan-li(School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang University of technology,Hangzhou 310018;Zhejiang Ecological Civilization Research Center,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310018;School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Hydropower,Hangzhou 310018)

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学经济管理学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江理工大学浙江省生态文明研究中心,浙江杭州310018 [3]浙江水利水电学院经管学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《南方农村》2022年第1期9-15,共7页South China Rural Area

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目INFEWS:U.S.-China:“食品、能源、水互馈系统模型的构建和模拟:市场和贸易发展与能源和农业可持续性耦合关系研究”(41961124004);国家自然科学基金面上项目“农业规模化经营的环境效率研究:评估、实证与模拟”(71873125)。

摘　　要：研究农用能源价格波动对粮食生产的影响,对于应对能源价格冲击和稳定粮食生产具有重要的现实意义。文章将农用能源价格变化对粮食生产成本的直接和间接影响进行系统性整合,构建价格内生的局部均衡模型,并利用江苏省粮食供需数据,来模拟分析能源价格波动对区域粮食生产成本、种植结构和社会福利等多方面的影响。农用能源价格的上升将推动与能源有关投入的总成本的提高,但是不同作物成本结构(柴油和化肥占比)呈现不同方向的变化。同时,由于作物之间对于土地和资金的竞争,使得农用能源价格波动带动各类粮食种植面积出现结构性调整。最终,农用能源价格的上升,将导致粮食生产和消费社会总福利的降低。建议制定联动的粮食和能源储存政策,提高柴油和化肥等于能源有关投入品的使用效率,并适当优化农业种植结构,减少对能源价格变化对粮食生产和价格的冲击。To study the impact of agricultural energy price fluctuation on grain production is of great practical significance to deal with the impact of energy price and stabilize grain production.This paper systematically integrates the direct and indirect impact of agricultural energy price changes on grain production costs,constructs a price endogenous local equilibrium model,and uses the grain supply and demand data of Jiangsu Province to simulate and analyze the impact of energy price fluctuations on regional grain production costs,planting structure and social welfare.The rise of agricultural energy prices will promote the increase of the total cost of energy related inputs,but the cost structure of different crops(the proportion of diesel and chemical fertilizer)changes in different directions.At the same time,due to the competition between crops for land and capital,the fluctuation of agricultural energy price drives the structural adjustment of various grain planting areas.Finally,the rise of agricultural energy prices will lead to the reduction of food production and consumption and the overall social welfare.It is suggested to formulate linkage food and energy storage policies,improve the use efficiency of diesel and chemical fertilizer equal to energy related inputs,appropriately optimize the agricultural planting structure,and reduce the impact of energy price changes on food production and prices.

关 键 词：农业能源 粮食生产 价格内生局部均衡模型 模拟分析 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]