中国工业资本回报率影响因素识别  

Identification of Influencing Factors of China’s Industrial Return on Capital

作　　者：郭文[1] 王海宇 GUO Wen;WANG Hai-yu(National School of Development,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Industrial and Business Organization Research Center,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian Liaoning 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学国家发展研究院,北京100871 [2]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2022年第3期100-105,共6页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

摘　　要：文章从理论分解、经验分解和实证检验三个角度识别中国工业资本回报率的影响因素。理论分解结果与经验分解结果一致,即中国工业资本回报率的变动可分解为四部分:全要素生产率、资本深化速率、乘数和资本错配程度。其中,全要素生产率与工业资本回报率变动正相关,资本错配程度、资本深化速率与工业资本回报率变动负相关,乘数的作用在于放大或缩小资本深化速率的影响。实证检验以开放经济为视角,引入对外开放度变量,实证结果支持理论分解和经验分解结论,且分区域回归结果显示,全要素生产率、资本错配系数、市场化程度和对外开放度的影响表现出明显的区域性差异。为此,需提高全要素生产率,降低资本错配和资本深化,坚持改革和开放双轮驱动以构建新发展格局。The paper systematically identifies the influencing factors of China’s industrial return on capital from three perspectives:theoretical decomposition, empirical decomposition and empirical test. The results of theoretical decomposition and empirical decomposition are consistent, that is, the change of China’s industrial return on capital can be divided into four parts: Total factor productivity,capital deepening, multiplier and capital mismatch. Among them, total factor productivity is positively correlated with the change of industrial capital return, while the degree of capital mismatch and capital deepening rate are negatively correlated. The role of multiplier is to enlarge or reduce the impact of capital deepening. Empirical results support the conclusions of theoretical decomposition and empirical decomposition, and the sub-regional regression results show that the effects of total factor productivity, capital mismatch, degree of marketization and openness show obvious regional differences. Therefore, it is necessary to improve total factor productivity, reduce capital mismatch and capital deepening, and adhere to the reform and opening up to build a new development pattern.

关 键 词：工业资本回报率 全要素生产率 资本错配系数 对外开放度 

分 类 号：F823.5[经济管理—财政学]