河北省太行山区核桃萌芽-幼果期温度适宜度模型构建及应用  

Establishment and Application of Temperature Suitability Model of Walnut from Germination Stage to Young Fruit Stage in Taihang Mountain Area of Hebei Province

作　　者：赵玉兵 李武龙 陈利英 路漫漫 杨丽娜 孙东磊 ZHAO Yubing;LI Wulong;CHEN Liying;LU Manman;YANG Lina;SUN Donglei(Xingtai Meteorological Administration,Hebei,Xingtai 054000;Research Center for Walnut Engineering and Technology of Hebei,Lincheng054300)

机构地区：[1]河北省邢台市气象局,邢台054000 [2]河北省核桃工程技术研究中心,临城054300

出　　处：《气象科技》2022年第1期155-160,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家林业公益性行业科研专项“太行山干旱退化山地旱涝灾害生态调控技术研究”(编号201504408);邢台市科技计划项目“太行山区核桃低温冻害气象监测预警技术研究”(编号2019ZZ017)资助。

摘　　要：本文基于温度因子对核桃萌芽-幼果期生长发育的影响,建立了日平均气温隶属函数适宜度模型,将逐日最低气温、致死温度和致灾温度及低于致灾温度持续时间引入温度隶属函数,建立了日最低气温隶属函数适宜度模型,将上述适宜度按一定的权重组合构建了河北省太行山区核桃萌芽-幼果期温度隶属函数适宜度模型。基于模型计算分析表明:冻害发生时,日平均气温适宜度一般在0.8以下,日最低气温适宜度、温度综合适宜度一般在0.6以下;以温度综合适宜度(S)进行冻害等级划分,当0.5<S≤0.6时,判定为轻微冻害;当0.4<S≤0.5时,判定为轻度冻害;当0.1<S≤0.4时,判定为中度冻害;S≤0.1时判定为重度冻害。结合多年的调查资料和历史气象数据进行检验,基于温度综合适宜度判定冻害等级的准确率为84%。该适宜度模型较好地反映了温度对核桃生长适宜程度的影响,模型结合智能网格数值预报进行业务应用,将为开展林果业冻害监测预警服务提供科技支撑。Based on the influence of temperature on the growth and development of walnut from germination to young fruit stage,the membership function for the suitability model of daily average temperature is established.The daily minimum temperature,lethal temperature,disaster-causing temperature and the duration below the disaster-causing temperature were introduced into the temperature membership function,and the membership function for the suitability model of daily minimum temperature is established.According to a certain weight combination,the membership function for the suitability model of temperature from germination to young fruit stage of walnut in Taihang mountain area of Hebei Province is constructed.The calculation and analysis based on the model show that when freezing injury occurs,the daily average temperature suitability is generally below 0.8,and the daily minimum temperature suitability and comprehensive temperature suitability are generally below 0.6.The grade of freezing injury is divided according to the value of comprehensive suitability of temperature(S):0.5<S≤0.6,slight freezing injury;0.4<S≤0.5,mild freezing injury;0.1<S≤0.4,moderate freezing injury;S≤0.1,severe freezing injury.Combined with many years of investigation and historical meteorological data,the accuracy of determining the frost damage level based on the comprehensive temperature suitability is 84%.The suitability model better reflects the influence of temperature on the suitability of walnut growth.Combined with the application of intelligent grid numerical prediction,the model will provide some services reference for early warning on freezing injury monitoring in the forest and fruit industry.

关 键 词：核桃 萌芽-幼果期 温度 适宜度 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S166[农业科学—农业气象学]