基于地面观测资料的太阳辐射量统计反演法研究  

Statistical Inversion Calculation of Solar Radiation Based on Ground Observation Data

作　　者：孙舒 SUN Shu(Guangdong Tianlian Electric Power Design Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510000,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]广东天联电力设计有限公司,广东广州510000

出　　处：《能源与节能》2022年第3期44-46,共3页Energy and Energy Conservation

摘　　要：为了在缺乏实测太阳辐射量的情况下精准评估光伏潜力,更好地规划和开发利用太阳辐射气候资源,促进地方经济发展以及助力国家碳中和目标的实现,研究提出一种基于地面观测资料的太阳辐射量计算方法。根据气候学原理,利用与太阳辐射相关的周边地面台站日照百分率和实测日太阳总辐射等观测数据,建立间接估算到达地面的月太阳总辐射量的计算模型;提出采用最小二乘法、统计软件拟合太阳总辐射估算模型的经验系数a,b。为了验证模型的计算效果,将模型应用于江西省吉水县一光伏站的光伏潜力分析中,将基于地面资料的统计反演法推算出的吉水县和南昌市年总辐射量分别与利用Meteonorm卫星数据和Solargis卫星数据获取到的吉水县和南昌市年总辐射量进行差值比较。研究表明:基于地面观测资料的太阳辐射量统计反演法已得到广泛应用;确定模型经验系数的相关性,是确认模型是否适用于拟合推算区域太阳辐射值的必要方法;利用基于地面资料的统计反演法估算的吉水县年总辐射量与利用Meteonorm卫星数据和Solargis卫星数据估算的吉水县年总辐射量相差不大,偏差均在3%以内,同理估算的南昌市年总辐射量偏差均在6%以内。在不能直接获取水平面上总辐射量和直接辐射量的情况下,研究所提出的方法在辐射量计算领域具有一定的适用性,这对后期评估光伏潜力所需辐射数据的选取具有重要意义。A solar radiation calculation method was proposed based on ground observation data.The method was proposed to accurately evaluate photovoltaic potential,better plan and develop solar radiation climate resources,promote local economic development and help achieve national carbon neutrality goal in the absence of measured solar radiation.According to the principle of climatology,a calculation model was established to estimate the total amount of monthly solar radiation on surface indirectly by using the solar radiation percentage of the surrounding ground stations and the measured daily total solar radiation.The least square method and statistical software were used to fit the empirical coefficients a and b of the total solar radiation estimation model.To verify the model calculation result,the model was applied to analyze photovoltaic potential of a PV station in Jishui County of Jiangxi Province.The total radiation was compared by two methods,one based on the results of Jishui County and Nanchang City calculated by statistical inversion method based on ground data,the other based on the Meteonorm satellite data and Solargis satellite data.The research shows that the statistical inversion method of solar radiation based on ground observation data has been widely used.Determining correlation of the empirical coefficients of the model is a necessary method to confirm whether the model is suitable for fitting and calculating regional solar radiation values.The annual total radiation of Jishui County estimated by statistical inversion method based on ground data has little difference with that estimated by Meteonorm satellite data and Solargis satellite data,and the deviation of the annual total radiation of Nanchang City estimated by the same method is within 6%.In the case that the total radiation amount and the direct radiation amount on the horizontal plane can not be directly obtained,the proposed method has certain applicability in the field of radiation amount calculation,which is of great significance to the s

关 键 词：太阳辐射量 气候学 统计反演 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]