基于SEIR演化博弈模型的突发危机事件网络舆情治理研究  

Research on Network Public Opinion Governance of Emergent Crisis Events Based on the SEIR Evolutionary Game Model

作　　者：祁凯[1] 彭程 杨志 黎冰雪 Qi Kai;Peng Cheng;Yang Zhi;Li Bingxue(School of Management,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025,China;School of Economics and Management,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨师范大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150025 [2]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《现代情报》2022年第4期120-133,共14页Journal of Modern Information

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“重大突发公共卫生事件网络社群情绪感染路径及导控机制研究”(项目编号:21YJC630106)。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]复杂网络环境中,“网络大V”与官方媒体的博弈行为增加了舆情演化的不确定性,也会导致不同的舆情治理效果。因此,实现网络舆情高效治理成为政府部门亟待解决的难题。[方法/过程]本文在内外部因素影响下基于SEIR构建网络舆情传播模型,同时运用演化博弈理论构建“网络大V”与官方媒体的演化博弈模型,并进一步引入政府部门惩罚机制和协调机制。在此基础上,分析不同条件下的舆情传播阈值与演化趋势,以及博弈双方策略选择的演化路径,最后结合多案例进行多情境模拟仿真实验研究。[结果/结论]仿真实验研究结果显示:舆情传播阈值大小能够预示舆情的演化趋势;舆情的传播热度能够影响“网络大V”与官方媒体的行为决策。政府部门通过合理介入能够敦促“网络大V”与官方媒体理性决策,并通过推动“政民”交流平台的建设减少粉丝数量的差异,同时妥善处置突发危机事件,降低突发危机事件热度,能够使得舆情治理效果最佳,从而加速系统内网络舆情的消亡。[Purpose/Significance]In the complex network environment,the game behavior between“Internet Big V”and official media increases the uncertainty of the evolution of public opinion,and also leads to different effects of public opinion governance.Therefore,it is an urgent problem for government departments to standardize the behavior strategies of both sides and realize efficient governance of online public opinion.[Method/Process]Based on SEIR under the influence of internal and external factors,using evolutionary game theory,a network public opinion communication model was built with an evolutionary game model of the official media,“Internet Big V”was built and further introduction of government departments to punish mechanism and coordination mechanism.On this basis,the threshold and evolution trend of the spread of public opinion under different conditions were analyzed,as well as the evolution path of the two sides of the game,and finally multiple cases were combined to conduct multi-situation simulation experiments.[Result/Conclusion]The simulation results showed that:the size of the threshold of public opinion propagation can predict the evolution trend of public opinion.The spread heat of open views can influence the behavioral decisions of“Internet Big V”and official media.Government departments through reasonable intervention can urge“Internet Big V”with the official media rational decisions,and promote the construction of“political people”communication platform to reduce the number of fans,and properly handle crisis emergency crisis emergency heat reduction,and achieve the best effect of public opinion governance,thus accelerating the demise of open network views the system.

关 键 词：突发危机事件 SEIR演化博弈模型 网络舆情治理 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]