乳业振兴背景下中国乳制品进口市场格局演变影响因素分析  

Under the Background of Dairy Revitalization How the Factors Impact on China's Import Market Pattern Evolution

作　　者：程长林 赵可 杨亚东[2] 侯丽薇[3] 姜鹏[4] CHENG Changlin;ZHAO Ke;YANG Yadong;HOU Liwei;JIANG Peng(School of Economics,Beijing WUZI University,Beijing 101149,China;Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of agricultural information and economic,Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences,Beijing 100097,China)

机构地区：[1]北京物资学院经济学院,北京101149 [2]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [3]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [4]北京市农林科学院农业信息与经济研究所,北京100097

出　　处：《中国乳品工业》2022年第2期47-49,共3页China Dairy Industry

基　　金：北京市教委社科一般项目(SM202010037005);北京物资学院校级青年基金项目(2019XJQN01);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41871184);中央农办农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会软科学课题(20190206);北京新农村建设研究基地项目(PXM2020_014207_000017)。

摘　　要：通过研究中国乳制品进口市场格局演变将对指导国内乳业生产及市场引导具有重要意义。通过构建近似理想需求系统模型(AIDS)和进口依赖性分析模型,以新西兰、美国、荷兰、澳大利亚等乳制品主要进口目标国为参照,对中国乳制品进口市场格局影响因素及进口依赖性进行系统分析。结果表明,中国乳制品进口量还将不断增大,对新西兰的依赖性最强,其次是荷兰、美国和澳大利亚。Under the background of Dairy industry revitalization,China's dairy industry is undergoing a critical transitional period,through the research on imports of Chinese dairy market pattern evolution,which of great significance at the guidance of domestic dairy production and market.Therefore,this research is composed by constructing approximate ideal demand system model(AIDS)and import dependency analysis model,targeted with New Zealand,the United States,the Netherlands,Australia,on imports of Chinese dairy market factors and import dependency analysis system.The results show that China's dairy imports will increase continuously,which has the most dependent relationship with the New Zealand,followed by the Netherlands,the United States and Australia.

关 键 词：乳制品进口 市场格局 AIDS模型 依赖性分析 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]