站点乘客总候车时间计算方法优化研究  

Optimization of calculation method of total passenger waiting time at the station

作　　者：张海燕 郑长江[1] 马君泽 ZHANG Haiyan;ZHENG Changjiang;MA Junze(College of Civil Engineering and Transportation Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学土木与交通学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《现代交通与冶金材料》2022年第2期12-18,共7页Modern Transportation and Metallurgical Materials

基　　金：江苏省交通运输科技项目(2021G09);中央高校基础研究基金资助项目(2019B13514)。

摘　　要：站点乘客总候车时间是公交公司进行车辆运营调度优化的重要指标,能够反映公交运输系统的运营状态和服务水平。为提高站点乘客总候车时间计算模型的精度与适用范围,采用代数学方法建立候车时间计算模型。使用分段三次埃尔米特插值法拟合站点累计到站乘客数量与时间的函数曲线,根据拟合函数表达式求解累计到站乘客数量变化时对应的时刻,作为各乘客估计到站时刻,并进一步计算站点乘客总候车时间。以佛山公交309路清晖园站点为例,利用改进方法计算晚高峰时段乘客总候车时间,所得总候车时间为131.12 min。将结果与均匀分布、泊松分布进行比较,泊松分布结果差异较大,对差异原因进行分析并优化该方法。采用假设案例对本文方法及优化后的泊松分布计算方法进行有效性检验,误差为7.45%和1.50%,验证了研究方法的有效性和适用条件广泛性。Total passenger waiting time is an important index for bus companies to optimize bus operation and scheduling,which can reflect the operation status and service level of public transport system.In order to improve the accuracy and application scope of total passenger waiting time calculation model,an algebraic method is used to establish the waiting time calculation model. The piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation method is used to calculate the function curve between the cumulative num-ber of arriving passengers and time,the corresponding time when the cumulative number of passengers changes is solved according to the fitting function,which is taken as the estimated arrival time of each passenger to calculate the total waiting time of passengers at the station. Taking Qinghui Park station of Foshan bus line 309 as an example,use the improved method to calculate the total waiting time of passengers in evening peak hours,the total waiting time is 131.12 minutes. The results are compared with the uniform distribution and Poisson distribution,the results of Poisson distribution are quite different from other methods. The reasons for the difference are analyzed and the method is optimized. A hypothetical case is used to test the effectiveness of proposed method and the optimized Poisson distribution calculation method. The errors are 7.45% and 1.50%,which verifies the effectiveness and universality of the research method.

关 键 词：候车时间 分布拟合 常规公交 泊松分布 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]