经济发展与生育率的“反J型”关系解读与启示  

Interpretation and Enlightenment of the “Inverse J-shaped” Relationship Between Economic Development and Fertility Rate

作　　者：钟水映[1] 汪世琦 Zhong Shuiying;Wang Shiqi(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《统计与决策》2022年第5期43-49,共7页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(20ARK006)。

摘　　要：文章基于36个OECD国家1980—2018年的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型对经济发展与生育率的“反J型”关系进行实证检验,并分析了在不同的制度、文化和社会结构背景下经济发展对生育率影响的地区差异性。研究结果表明:第一,经济发展与生育率的“反J型”关系确实存在。第二,经济发展对生育率的影响存在显著的异质性,对于家庭政策力度更强、性别平等程度更高的国家,经济发展对生育率的积极作用更为显著,而市场托育情况的差异并不会带来显著的差别。第三,由性别平等、收入分配和家庭政策三个要素构成的社会生育环境在经济发展与生育率的关系中有显著的正向调节作用。Based on the panel data of 36 OECD(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries from 1980 to 2018, this paper uses a bidirectional fixed effect model to empirically test the “inverse-J-shaped”relationship between economic development and fertility rate, and then analyzes regional differences in the impact of economic development on fertility rate under different institutional, cultural and social structures. The results are shown as follows: First, the“inverse J-shaped” relationship between economic development and fertility rate does exist. Second, there is significant heterogeneity in the impact of economic development on fertility rate. The positive effect of economic development of countries with stronger family policies and higher gender equality on fertility rate is more significant, while differences in market childcare do not make significant differences. Thirdly, the social fertility environment composed of gender equality, income distribution and family policy has a significant positive moderating effect on the relationship between economic development and fertility rate.

关 键 词：经济发展 生育率 “反J型”关系 社会生育环境 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]