货币错配、人民币汇率对我国经济增长非线性时变影响的实证检验  

An Empirical Test on the Nonlinear Time-varying Effects of Currency Mismatch and RMB Exchange Rate on China’s Economic Growth

作　　者：王凯 庞震 Wang Kai;Pang Zhen(School of Marxism,Xidian University,Xi'an 710126,China)

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学马克思主义学院,酉安710126

出　　处：《统计与决策》2022年第5期132-136,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(16BJL092)。

摘　　要：货币错配是一个关系到国家经济安全的重大问题,我国是“非中心货币”国家,积累了大量以美元计值的外部债权,存在债权型的货币错配,对金融稳定和经济发展构成威胁。文章利用TVP-VAR模型分析了货币错配、人民币汇率和经济增长的非线性时变关系。研究发现,虽然我国货币错配未达到不可控制的程度,但货币错配促使人民币汇率升值,降低了经济增长率,对宏观政策的掣肘突出。解决货币错配问题的根本途径是继续推进人民币汇率改革,实现人民币国际化。Currency mismatch is a major problem related to national economic security.China is a“non-central currency”country,which has accumulated a large amount of dollar-denominated external claims.There is a debt-based currency mismatch,which poses a threat to financial stability and economic development.This paper uses TVP-VAR model to analyze the nonlinear time-varying relationship between currency mismatch,RMB exchange rate and economic growth.Researches find that although the currency mismatch in China has not reached an uncontrollable degree,the currency mismatch has promoted the appreciation of RMB exchange rate,reduced the economic growth rate,and exerted a prominent constraint on macro policies.The fundamental way to solve the problem of currency mismatch is to continue to promote the reform of RMB exchange rate and realize the internationalization of RMB.

关 键 词：货币错配 人民币汇率 经济增长 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]