刺激消费政策的动态影响研究——来自“家电下乡”的证据  

The Dynamic Effects of Stimulating Consumption Policy——Evidence from “Home Appliances to the Countryside”

作　　者：张川川 王玥琴 杨汝岱[3] ZHANG Chuanchuan;WANG Yueqin;YANG Rudai(Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,China;Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing,China;Peking University,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,310058 [2]中央财经大学经济学院,102206 [3]北京大学经济学院,100871

出　　处：《经济学动态》2021年第12期110-123,共14页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：浙江省社科规划重点课题(21WZQH01Z);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金。

摘　　要："十四五"时期需要坚持实施扩大内需战略,经济增长模式从投资拉动型向消费促进型转变势在必行。农村市场拥有巨大的潜在购买力,对于畅通国内大循环至关重要。在这一背景下,通过评估各项刺激农村消费政策的效果以优化政策设计成为学术界关注的重要问题。本文使用农业农村部农村固定观察点调查2003—2013年间数据,采用事件分析法,估计家电下乡政策对农村家庭各项消费的动态影响。研究结果显示:家电下乡政策对农村家庭耐用品消费有着显著的促进作用,在政策实施的第二年和第四年,耐用品消费支出分别显著增加42.3%和56.2%,高收入家庭在耐用消费品对政策反应更大;对于低收入家庭,由于预算约束和流动性约束等原因,仅日用消费品、燃料等低成本消费品的支出有较为明显的增长,并且仅高收入家庭的消费支出有显著提高。这意味着在"非李嘉图式"消费者的比例较低的情况下,刺激消费政策才能产生显著的效果,而这有赖于提高农村居民的收入水平。本文研究为加强和改进刺激消费政策提供了学术借鉴。During the 14 th Five-Year Plan period, it is necessary to shift the economic growth model from investment-driven to consumption-driven. Rural consumption, which has a large growth potential, is crucial to smoothing the domestic circulation. In this context, improving policy design through evaluating the effects of various rural consumption-stimulating policies becomes a focus of academic concern. This paper uses data from the Rural Fixed Point Survey and employs an event study approach to estimate dynamic impacts of the “home appliances to the countryside” program(Jiadian Xiaxiang) on consumption among rural households. The results show that the policy has significantly promoted household consumption of durable goods. In particular, household consumption of durable goods increased by 42.3% and 56.2% in the second and fourth year of the policy implementation, respectively. In addition, the increase in consumption of durable goods is much more pronounced among high-income households. Among low-income households, the policy only promoted consumption of daily necessities and fuel due to the tight budget constraint and liquidity constraint. These findings imply that the effect of consumption-stimulating policies is larger when the share of non-Ricardian consumers is lower, which hence relies on increasing the disposable income of rural households.

关 键 词：消费 增长方式转型 家电下乡 农村家庭 

分 类 号：F426.6[经济管理—产业经济] F323.8