社保负担上升会加剧失业吗?——基于提前退休行为的调节效应视角  

Will the Social Security Burden Increase Unemployment Rate?——A Moderating Effect Perspective Based on Early Retirement Behavior

作　　者：王佳慧 张宁 Wang Jiahui;Zhang Ning

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学财政税务学院,济南250014 [2]华夏人寿保险有限公司山东省分公司,济南250012

出　　处：《公共财政研究》2021年第6期35-47,共13页Public Finance Research Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年基金“体制内就业偏好的形成、影响及干预研究”(19YJC790081)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：人口老龄化趋势使得不少国家和地区选择提高缴费率以应对社保支出压力,社保负担的上升是否会加剧失业?为了检验这一现实问题,本文基于OECD国家的历史面板数据进行了实证分析,得出如下结论:从结果来看,OECD国家的社保负担水平并没有显著影响总体失业率和分年龄段失业率。从机制上而言,社保负担水平提高会促使老年人提前退休,从而缓冲了其对失业率的影响,发挥了调节效应。这种调节效应在不同群体之间有所差异,青年群体最显著,中年群体次之,老年群体最弱。由于我国正在研究延迟退休政策,可能会使得失业率的缓冲机制受限,未来要在降低社保名义费率和放宽延迟退休进度上做好政策配置,以使劳动力市场的冲击最小化。The aging population makes many countries and regions choose to increase the payment rate to cope with the pressure of social security expenditure.Will the rise of social security burden aggravate unemployment?In order to test this practical problem,this paper makes empirical analyses and draws the following conclusions:From the results,the level of social security contributions in OECD countries does not significantly affect the overall unemployment rate and age-specific unemployment rate.In terms of mechanism,the increase of social security contributions burden will encourage the elderly to retire in advance,thus cushioning its impact on the unemployment rate and playing a moderating effect.The moderating effect is different among different groups,the most significant in the young group,followed by the middle-aged group,and the weakest in the old group.At the same time,Chinese government implement the delayed retirement policy,the buffer mechanism of unemployment rate is limited.In the future,Chinese government should make policy allocation on reducing the nominal rate of social security contribution and relaxing the policy of postponing the statutory retirement age,so as to minimize the impact of the labor market.

关 键 词：社保缴款负担率 失业率 提前退休 调节效应 

分 类 号：C979[经济管理—劳动经济]