低人口生育率影响因素的理论诠释与实证研究——兼析我国育龄妇女人口数量占比与生育“窗口期”预测  

The theoretical interpretation and empirical study on factors influencing low fertility rate——Analysis of population proportion of women of childbearing age in China and prediction of "window period" of fertility

作　　者：杨昊雯 

机构地区：[1]澳大利亚国立大学商业与经济学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2021年第9期106-110,202,共6页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：促进我国人口长期均衡发展,延缓我国老龄化、少子化问题刻不容缓。本文对生育率影响因素进行实证分析,发现二胎虚拟、少儿抚养比、老年抚养比对生育率的影响显著为正,女性劳动参与率、人均GDP、平均受教育年限对生育率的影响在不同模型中存在差异;继而以人均GDP、平均受教育年限作为门槛变量进行实证分析,发现当经济发展到一定程度时,经济发展对生育率的影响并不显著,说明经济发展程度较高时生育已经不是一个简单经济决策,更关乎个体效用和价值选择;当平均受教育年限跨越门槛值时,其对生育率负向影响减弱;进一步通过对育龄妇女占人口总数比例进行预测,发现育龄妇女数量比例下降存在一个平台期,即人口生育存在窗口期。为此,提出建议,提出如下建议:积极落实《中共中央关于优化生育政策促进人口长期均衡发展的决定》,抓住窗口期,制定生育鼓励政策,促进我国人口结构的改善。It is urgent to promote the long-term balanced development of China’s population and delay the problem of aging and sub-replacement fertility in China. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of the total fertility rate and finds that the influence of the second-child dummy variable, young-age dependency ratio, and old-age dependency ratio on fertility rate is significantly positive. The test results show differences in female labor force participation rate, per capita GDP, and average schooling years on fertility rates in different models. Then, the empirical study found that when economic development reaches a certain level, the impact of the economic factor on fertility rate is not significant, indicating that, at a higher level of economic level, fertility is no longer a simple economic decision. It is more related to individual utility and value selection. When the average schooling year exceeds the threshold value, its negative impact on fertility decreases. Further, by predicting the proportion of women of childbearing age in the total population, it is found that there is a plateau in the decline of the proportion of women of childbearing age, that is, the window period of population fertility. Therefore, it is suggested to actively implement the decision of the CPC Central Committee on optimizing the birth policy and promoting the long-term balanced development of population, seize the window period, formulate the birth encouragement policy and promote the improvement of China’s population structure.

关 键 词：总和生育率 少子化 劳动参与率 抚养比 生育窗口期 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]