体育娱乐用品零售价格指数预测研究——基于深度学习算法的分析  

Research on the Forecast of Retail Price Index of Sports and Entertainment Goods——Analysis based on deep learning algorithms

作　　者：张旭 谌莉 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)体育与人文艺术学院 [2]北京体育大学体育商学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2021年第9期116-119,202,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(20BJY233)的资助。

摘　　要：在国家"健康中国"战略的推进背景下,我国体育及娱乐产业呈现快速发展的态势,科学预测体育娱乐用品价格指数对于把握该市场发展趋势,促进资源合理配置具有重要意义。本文利用基于深度学习的LSTM模型对我国体育娱乐用品零售价格指数进行预测,结论显示:我国体育娱乐用品的城市及农村的零售价格指数和综合零售价格指数均呈现波动上升趋势。城市体育娱乐用品零售价格指数增速的波动性较高,而农村体育娱乐用品零售价格指数增速呈现较为明显的下降趋势。我国体育娱乐用品类零售价格指数虽然波动率差别较大,但整体呈现上升趋势,市场前景良好。结合其趋势分析,本文在企业如何满足消费者需求并加强新技术应用、行业如何加强价格预测管理以及政府、行业和企业如何共同扩大体育消费市场方面提出了建议。Under the background of the promotion of the national "Healthy China" strategy, my country’s sports and entertainment industry is showing a trend of rapid development. Scientific prediction of the price index of sports and entertainment products is of great significance to grasp the development trend of the market and promote the rational allocation of resources. In this paper, the LSTM model based on deep learning is used to predict the retail price index of sports entertainment products in my country. The conclusion shows that the retail price index and comprehensive retail price index of sports entertainment products in urban and rural areas in China both show a fluctuating upward trend. The volatility of the growth rate of the retail price index of sports and entertainment goods in urban areas is relatively high, while the growth rate of the retail price index of sports and entertainment goods in rural areas shows a relatively obvious downward trend. Although the volatility of the retail price index of sports and entertainment goods in my country varies greatly, it shows an upward trend as a whole, and the market prospect is good. Combined with its trend analysis, this paper puts forward suggestions on how enterprises can meet consumer demand and strengthen the application of new technologies, how the industry can strengthen price forecast management, and how the government, industry and enterprises can jointly expand the sports consumption market.

关 键 词：深度学习 零售价格指数 体育娱乐用品 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济] F426.8