A primer on using mathematics to understand COVID-19 dynamics: Modeling, analysis and simulations  

作　　者：Abba B.Gumel Enahoro A.Iboi Calistus N.Ngonghala Elamin H.Elbasha 

机构地区：[1]School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences,Arizona State University,Tempe,AZ,85287,USA [2]Department of Mathematics,Spelman College,Atlanta,GA,30314,USA [3]Department of Mathematics,University of Florida,Gainesville,FL,32611,USA [4]Emerging Pathogens Institute,University of Florida,Gainesville,FL,32610,USA [5]Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics,University of Pretoria,Pretoria,0002,South Africa [6]Merck&Co.,Inc.,2000 Galloping Hill Road,Kenilworth,NJ,07033,USA

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2021年第1期148-168,共21页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：One of the authors(ABG)acknowledge the support,in part,of the Simons Foundation(Award#585022);the National Science Foundation(Award#1917512);CNN acknowledges the support of the Simons Foundation(Award#627346).

摘　　要：The novel coronavirus(COVID-19)pandemic that emerged from Wuhan city in December 2019 overwhelmed health systems and paralyzed economies around the world.It became the most important public health challenge facing mankind since the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.Various theoretical and empirical approaches have been designed and used to gain insight into the transmission dynamics and control of the pandemic.This study presents a primer for formulating,analysing and simulating mathematical models for understanding the dynamics of COVID-19.Specifically,we introduce simple compartmental,Kermack-McKendrick-type epidemic models with homogeneously-and heterogeneously-mixed populations,an endemic model for assessing the potential population-level impact of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine.We illustrate how some basic non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 can be incorporated into the epidemic model.A brief overview of other kinds of models that have been used to study the dynamics of COVID-19,such as agent-based,network and statistical models,is also presented.Possible extensions of the basic model,as well as open challenges associated with the formulation and theoretical analysis of models for COVID-19 dynamics,are suggested.

关 键 词：COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Non-pharmaceutical interventions Face mask Reproduction number 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] O17[医药卫生—内科学]