Predictive models on COVID 19: What Africans should do?  

作　　者：Habte Tadesse Likassa Wen Xain Xuan Tang Gizachew Gobebo 

机构地区：[1]Departement of Statistics,College of Natural and Computational Sciences,Addis Ababa University,Ethiopia [2]Chinese Academy of Sciences,Fujian Institute of Research on the Structure of Matter Fuzhou,China

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2021年第1期302-312,共11页传染病建模（英文）

摘　　要：In this study,predictive models are proposed to accurately estimate the confirmed cases and deaths due to of Corona virus 2019(COVID-19)in Africa.The study proposed the predictive models to determine the spatial and temporal pattern of COVID 19 in Africa.The result of the study has shown that the spatial and temporal pattern of the pandemic is varying across in the study area.The result has shown that cubic model is best outperforming compared to the other six families of exponentials(R^(2)=0:996;F=538:334;D_(F1)=3;D_(F1)=7;b_(1)=13691:949;b_(2)=-824:701;b_(1)=12:956).The adopted cubic algorithm is more robust in predicting the confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID 19.The cubic algorithm is more superior to the state of the art of the works based on the world health organization data.This also entails the best way to mitigate the expansion of COVID 19 is through persistent and strict self-isolation.This pandemic will sustain to grow up,and peak to the highest for which a strong care and public health interventions practically implemented.It is highly recommended for Africans must go beyond theory preparations implementations practically through the public interventions.

关 键 词：Prediction models COVID 19 Mitigation mechanisms and transmission 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]