A metapopulation network model for the spreading of SARSCoV-2: Case study for Ireland  

作　　者：Rory Humphries Mary Spillane Kieran Mulchrone Sebastian Wieczorek Micheal O’Riordain Philipp Hövel 

机构地区：[1]School of Mathematical Sciences,University College Cork,Western Road,Cork,T12XF64,Ireland [2]Department of Surgery,Mercy University Hospital,Grenville Place,Cork,T12WE28,Ireland

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2021年第1期420-437,共18页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：This article is the results of the research project funded by the Health Research Board in the framework of the COVID19 rapid response programme(grant number:COV19-2020-117).

摘　　要：We present preliminary results on an all-Ireland network modelling approach to simulate the spreading the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2(SARS-CoV-2),commonly known as the coronavirus.In the model,nodes correspond to locations or communities that are connected by links indicating travel and commuting between different locations.While this proposed modelling framework can be applied on all levels of spatial granularity and different countries,we consider Ireland as a case study.The network comprises 3440 electoral divisions(EDs)of the Republic of Ireland and 890 superoutput areas(SOAs)for Northern Ireland,which corresponds to local administrative units below the NUTS 3 regions.The local dynamics within each node follows a phenomenological SIRX compartmental model including classes of Susceptibles,Infected,Recovered and Quarantined(X)inspired from Science 368,742(2020).For better comparison to empirical data,we extended that model by a class of Deaths.We consider various scenarios including the 5-phase roadmap for Ireland.In addition,as proof of concept,we investigate the effect of dynamic interventions that aim to keep the number of infected below a given threshold.This is achieved by dynamically adjusting containment measures on a national scale,which could also be implemented at a regional(county)or local(ED/SOA)level.We find that-in principle-dynamic interventions are capable to limit the impact of future waves of outbreaks,but on the downside,in the absence of a vaccine,such a strategy can last several years until herd immunity is reached.

关 键 词：Compartmental model SARS-CoV-2 CORONAVIRUS Non-pharmaceutical containment strategies Network model 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]