Power-law growth of the COVID-19 fatality incidents in Europe  

作　　者：D.G.Xenikos A.Asimakopoulos 

机构地区：[1]School of Appl.Mathem.&Physical Sciences,National Technical Univ.of Athens,15780,Athens,Greece [2]Hellenic Telecommunications Organization SA,19002,Paiania,Greece

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2021年第1期743-750,共8页传染病建模（英文）

摘　　要：We report on the dynamic scaling of the diffusion growth phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe.During this initial diffusion stage,the European countries implemented unprecedented mitigation polices to delay and suppress the disease contagion,although not in a uniform way or timing.Despite this diversity,we find that the reported fatality cases grow following a power law in all European countries we studied.The difference among countries is the value of the power-law exponent 3.5<α<8.0.This common attribute can prove a practical diagnostic tool,allowing reasonable predictions for the growth rate from very early data at a country level.We propose a model for the disease-causing interactions,based on a mechanism of human decisions and risk taking in interpersonal associations.The model describes the observed statistical distribution and contributes to the discussion on basic assumptions for homogeneous mixing or for a network perspective in epidemiological studies of COVID-19.

关 键 词：COVID-19 epidemic diffusion Mathematical modelling power-law dynamics fatality cases statistics confirmed cases statistics 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R18[医药卫生—内科学]