Infer HIV transmission dynamics from gene sequences among young men who have sex with men in China  

作　　者：Xin Jin Jinjin Cheng Jie Lou 

机构地区：[1]Department of Mathematics,Shanghai University,99 Shangda Road,Shanghai,200444,PR China

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2021年第1期832-838,共7页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：This study is supported by the Natural Science item of China under grant No.11771277.

摘　　要：To investigate the transmission dynamics and temporal and spatial migration characteristics of HIV spread among men who have sex with men(MSM)in China,a total of 1012 HIV-1 partial pol sequences,including five subtypes,were studied.Bayesian analysis were applied for each subtype to infer its dynamic characters including the effective reproductive number(R_(e))and migration process.The mean curve of each R_(e) was almost always greater than 1(even the 95%highest posterior density(HPD)lower value)along with time,which supports the necessity for a comprehensive study about risk behaviors among young MSM group in China.We also should reappraise the free treatment strategy,especially the therapeutic effect during the free treatment policy.

关 键 词：HIV Gene sequence Transmission dynamics Bayesian analysis Effective reproductive number 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]