中国人口红利源泉:教育、健康和人口年龄结构  

The Source of China's Demographic Dividend:Education,Health,and the Age Structure of the Population

作　　者：楠玉[1,2] NAN Yu(Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100836,China;School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京100836 [2]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2022年第2期18-30,共13页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“消费与人力资本关联机制及其对创新效率影响研究”(20CJL032)。

摘　　要：通过构造包含劳动年龄人口占比、教育人力资本和健康人力资本的增长核算框架,系统考察了影响中国经济发展质量的人口红利源泉。同时,依据增长阶段划分标准,对我国处于不同发展阶段的样本进行考察,以便于提出更有针对性的人口与经济发展政策。研究发现,对于我国整体经济而言,劳动年龄人口占比和健康人力资本增长均能显著促进经济发展质量提升,而教育人力资本对经济发展质量的影响呈现出U型变动特征,教育人力资本的正向影响在中等偏高收入阶段和高收入阶段更为显著。同时,我国处于高收入阶段区域的资本驱动增长的特征已逐步弱化,劳动年龄人口、教育人力资本和健康人力资本对人均收入增长的影响均显著为正,高收入阶段应注重劳动力数量增长和质量提升的再平衡,加强健康人力资本和高层次教育人才的积累和培育,为实现高质量发展蓄积力量。By constructing a growth accounting framework that includes the proportion of the working-age population,education human capital,and health human capital,this article systematically examines the sources of demographic dividends that affect the quality of China's economic development.At the same time,according to the criteria for the division of growth stages,the samples in different development stages of our country are inspected in order to propose more targeted population and economic development policies.The study finds that for China's overall economy,the proportion of the working-age population and the growth of healthy human capital can significantly improve the quality of economic development,and the impact of educational human capital on the quality of economic development shows a positive U-shaped change.The positive impact of capital is more significant in the middle-high income stage and the high-income stage.Meanwhile,the characteristics of capital-driven growth in high-income regions in China have gradually weakened.The impact of working-age population,educational human capital and healthy human capital on the growth of per capita income is significantly positive.At the high-income stage,attention should be paid to the re-balancing process of labor quantity growth and quality improvement and the enhancement of the accumulation and cultivation of the healthy human capital and high-level educational talents so as to save power for achieving high-quality development.

关 键 词：人口红利 人口年龄结构 教育人力资本 健康人力资本 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]