山火条件下输电线路跳闸概率计算  

Calculation of Transmission Line Trip Probabilities under Forest Fire Condition

作　　者：刘辉 杨韬 林济铿[2] 王京景 严波 刘潇 LIU Hui;YANG Tao;LIN Jikeng;WANG Jingjing;YAN Bo;LIU Xiao(State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hefei 230022,China;College of Electronics and Information Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;Anhui Jiyuan Software Co.,Ltd.,Hefei 230031,China)

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力有限公司,安徽合肥230022 [2]同济大学电子与信息工程学院,上海200092 [3]安徽继远软件有限公司,安徽合肥230031

出　　处：《中国电力》2022年第3期125-133,共9页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(基于图论的智能电网电力孤岛的模型和优化,51177107);国网安徽省电力有限公司科技项目(基于气象灾害云技术的电网运行风险综合预警技术研究,52120018004Q)。

摘　　要：近些年,因山火导致的线路跳闸事件时有发生,如何较为准确地预测山火导致的线路跳闸概率,就成为一个备受关注的问题之一。提出了基于改进元胞自动机山火蔓延模型的输电线路跳闸概率新方法。首先引入火焰温度、植被类型、火点距离和降雨量等因素,考虑这些因素对输电线跳闸的综合影响。然后采用改进元胞自动机对山火蔓延过程进行较为准确的预测,根据其蔓延发展情况而得到较为精确的山火导致输电线跳闸的概率变化趋势。方法对于电网的安全运行具有一定的指导作用。算例证明了方法的有效性。In recent years,line tripping incidents caused by forest fires occur frequently.How to accurately predict the line trip probability caused by forest fire has become one of the urgent issues that have attracted much attention.A new method for calculating transmission line trip probabilities is thus proposed in this paper using improved cellular automata forest fire spread model.Firstly some factors are introduced such as flame temperature,vegetation type,fire distance and precipitation,and the integrated impact of these factors on the line tripping is analyzed;then the improved cellular automata is used to predict the spread process of forest fires,and the accurate probability variation of line tripping caused by forest fire is thus obtained according to the spread situation.The effectiveness of the proposed method has been proved through case study,and it can provide a guide for the safe operation of power grid.

关 键 词：山火条件 线路跳闸概率 改进元胞自动机 综合影响 安全预警 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]