基于逻辑博弈决策Petri网的应急决策建模与分析  

Modeling and Analysis of Emergency Decision Making Based on Logical Probability Game Petri Net

作　　者：李清 刘伟 管梦真 杜玉越 孙红伟 LI Qing;LIU Wei;GUAN Meng-zhen;DU Yu-yue;SUN Hong-wei(College of Computer Science&Engineering,Shandong University of Science&Technology,Qingdao,Shandong 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学计算机科学与工程学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《计算机科学》2022年第4期294-301,共8页Computer Science

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2020MF033);国家自然科学基金(61472228)。

摘　　要：发挥逻辑Petri网对批处理和传值不确定性的建模优势,融合多主体博弈过程的相关博弈要素,为多主体决策问题建模,解决多主体动态博弈决策优化问题,文中提出了逻辑博弈决策Petri网。首先,定义每个token的属性为理性人并为其定义效用函数值以及状态概率转移函数。其次,引入决策变迁,依据token效用函数值对比确定最优决策变迁的引发并给出相关算法。最后,基于逻辑博弈决策Petri网对突发事件的动态博弈应急决策过程进行建模与分析,并依据可达标识构建可达图,对动态博弈过程进行分析,针对可达图的生成进行算法描述,并探讨突发事件的逻辑博弈决策模型如何解决动态博弈决策问题、生成最优应急预案以及应急过程中对资源冲突的分析。在此基础上验证了模型在分析突发事件的应急决策过程中的有效性和优越性。To give play to the modeling advantages of the logical Petri net for batch processing and uncertainty of value transfer,this paper integralings the relevant game elements of multi-agent game process,excutes models for the multi-agent decision problem,solves the problem of multi-agent dynamic game decision optimization and puts forward logic game decision Petri net.Above all,this paper defines the properties of each token as rational persons and its utility function values,and provide the definition of utility functions and state probability transfer function.Next,this paper introduces decision transition,determines the optimal decision transition as per the comparison of token utility function value as well as provides related algorithm.Finally,the modeling and analysis of the dynamic game decision process of emergency are carried out based on logical game decision Petri net,and the dynamic game process is analyzed based on the reachability graph constructed by reachability identification.The algorithm is described for the generation of reachability graph,and how to solve the dynamic game decision problem is discussed,thus the optimal emergency pre-arranged plan is generated and the resource conflict in the process of emergency is analyzed by the logic game decision model of emergency.On this basis,this paper verifies the effectiveness and superiority of the model in the analysis of the emergency decision process.

关 键 词：逻辑博弈决策Petri网 动态博弈 可达图 决策变迁 

分 类 号：TP301[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]