我国农村公路网合理发展规模研究  

Rational Development Scale of Rural Highway Network in China

作　　者：郝大力 王海燕 刘蕾蕾[2] 李晓峰[2] 王伯洵 HAO Da-li;WANG Hai-yan;LIU Lei-lei;LI Xiao-feng;WANG Bo-xun(CIECC Overseas Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100048,China;China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]中咨海外咨询有限公司,北京100048 [2]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029 [3]山东科技大学,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2022年第1期2-11,共10页Transport Research

摘　　要：为提高农村公路系统的配置效率,从时间与地域两个维度,比较了2006—2020年全国31个省、自治区和直辖市农村公路路网密度、路网系数K(经济水平系数),并基于国土系数理论对未来农村公路的合理发展规模进行预测。研究表明,就交通供给而言,东部、中部与西部地区具有发展不平衡的地域差异;就交通规模增长对经济社会的适应性而言,K值与人均国民生产总值PGDP并非一直表现为线性关系,而是随着工业化进程呈S形的生长型曲线;全国农村公路的供给水平整体上适度超前,规模增长已经处于拐点区域,未来发展将趋于平稳,预计2025年总量规模为454万公里,2035年为488万公里,2050年为523万公里,平均增长率不足1%;而各地由于区域经济社会发展水平、资源禀赋及分布情况、区域交通区位特点等的不同,也分别将在人均GDP达5万~6万元时,路网发展规模迈入拐点区域。In order to improve the allocation efficiency of rural highway system,from dimensions of time and region,this paper quantitatively compared the rural highway network density and coefficient K(eco-nomic level coefficient)of 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2006 to 2020,and predicted the reasonable development scale of rural highway in the future based on land coeffi-cient theory.Studies have shown that in terms of transportation supply,there are regional differences of obvious unbalanced development in the eastern,central,and western regions.In terms of the adaptability of transportation to economic society,the K value and per capita GDP are not always expressed as lin-ear relationship,but the"S"shaped growth curve with the process of industrialization.The supply lev-el of rural highways in the whole country is moderately advanced,their scale growth having reached an inflection point,and tend to develop steadily in the future.The estimated total scale will be 4.54 million km in 2025,4.88 million km in 2035 and 5.23 million km in 2050,with an average growth rate of less than 1%.However,due to the differences of regional economic,social development level,resource endowment and distribution,regional traffic location characteristics and so on,the road net-work development scale will enter the inflection point region under the per capita GDP of 50000 yuan and 60000 yuan respectively.

关 键 词：农村公路 发展规模 路网密度 交通发展指标 路网系数 

分 类 号：U412.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]