基于双重相似机制的台风期间电力负荷预测方法研究  

Research on Power Load Forecasting Method Based onDouble Similarity Mechanism During Typhoon

作　　者：马骞[1] 周毓敏[1] 袁泉 周辉 MA Qian;ZHOU Yumin;YUAN Quan;ZHOU Hui(CSG Power Dispatching Control Center,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510663,China;Beijing Tsingsoft Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]中国南方电网电力调度控制中心,广东广州510663 [2]北京清软创新科技有限公司,北京100085

出　　处：《广东电力》2022年第3期79-87,共9页Guangdong Electric Power

基　　金：中国南方电网有限责任公司重点科技项目(ZDKJXM20190020)。

摘　　要：为提升台风期间电力负荷预测精度,提出基于相似周期与相似日特征的双重相似预测方法,将各类台风天气依据其对负荷产生的影响程度分为无特殊影响台风、影响性台风与破坏性台风,并阐述各类台风特点与预测思路。对于台风期间短期电力负荷预测,采用寻找相似性的方法,从气象变化的相似周期以及综合考虑气象、日期距离、星期类型、季节类型以及台风强度的相似日特征入手,形成基于双重相似机制的台风期间负荷预测方法。以广东省负荷预测为例,在台风“海高斯”期间,所提预测方法实现了预测准确率的提升,验证了方法的有效性。To improve the power load forecasting accuracy during typhoon,this paper proposes a double similarity forecasting method based on similarity period and similar day features.The research mainly divides all kinds of typhoon weather into non-special impact typhoon,influential typhoon and destructive typhoon according to their influence degrees on load,and expounds the characteristics and forecast ideas of all kinds of typhoon.For short-term power load forecasting methods during the typhoon,the paper mainly adopts a method of similarity search,beginning with the similarity period of climate change,comprehensive considerations of weather,date distance,the types of weeks and seasons,and the similar day features of typhoon intensities.And then it forms the load forecasting method during typhoon based on the double similar mechanism.Taking the load forecast in Guangdong province as an example,the proposed forecasting method is used during typhoon Higos,which proves its effectiveness in improving the load forecasting accuracy.

关 键 词：双重相似 相似周期 相似日特征 台风期间 电力负荷预测 影响性台风 

分 类 号：TM715.1[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]